Three reasons why Nebraska will win; three reasons why Nebraska will lose vs. Bowling Green

Nebraska’s opponent Saturday, Bowling Green, started its season with a rough loss to FCS Tarleton State, 20-13. OK, so this matchup doesn’t look like the kind of dogfight that first-half Ohio put up against the Huskers last Saturday before losing, 49-21.

Mid-American Conference teams don’t schedule FCS teams to lose to them. So, what can the Huskers expect from Bowling Green on Saturday night (6 o’clock, FS1) at Memorial Stadium?

Probably a team eager to redeem itself from the Tarleton State loss.

Bowling Green junior quarterback Jay Kastantin did his part, completing 24-of-30 passes for 262 yards. Last week, Ohio came to town with quarterback Nick Poulos, who effectively ran and threw against the Huskers, especially early in the game.

Falcons coach Eddie George, the 1995 Heisman Trophy winner over runner-up Tommie Frazier, the Nebraska quarterback, is in his second season. He arrived at Bowling Green after having success at Tennessee State, where he was the Big South-Ohio Valley Conference Coach of the Year in 2024 after a 9-3 season. The Falcons were 4-8 last season.

Bowling Green coach Eddie George in his second season with the Falcons. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Figure George will bring the Falcons around, at some point. Stepping into Memorial Stadium might not be their best starting point. Bowling Green has had just two winning seasons since 2015 — both 7-6 seasons for you numerologists out there.

The Falcons are ranked 134th by The Athletic, down from their preseason ranking of 122. Nebraska is ranked 58th, same as in the preseason.

Each week, we’ll give you three reasons why the Huskers will win and three reasons why the Huskers will lose. We’ll give you reasons even if the odds seem insurmountable either way.

Why Nebraska will win

The running game

Tarleton State allowed a rushing performance of 250 yards by Tylan Tines. This plays right into the hands of what looks like a Huskers strength, their running attack behind a retooled line.

Huskers true freshman Jamal Rule gained 122 rushing yards on 15 carries against Ohio, Mekhi Nelson gained 64 yards on 10 carries, and Isaiah Mozee gained 31 yards on six carries. In all, Nebraska gained 248 yards on 42 carries, a 5.9-yard per play average.

Every team is different and every defense is different, but Bowling Green’s run defense looks like a vulnerable spot for the Huskers to exploit.

FanDuel has the Huskers as a 29.5-point favorite. Nebraska was a 23.5-point favorite against Ohio.

And if for some reason the running game isn’t clicking, Anthony Colandrea passed for 275 yards last week — and looked good doing so.

The Huskers’ second-half defense

Nebraska overcame a shaky start on defense — three Ohio scores on its first three possessions — to dominate the rest of the game.

Nebraska's defense should be helped by the reported return of linebacker Owen Chambliss. | Nebraska Athletics

Whether it was adjustments, or motivational speeches, or personal pride, but the Huskers’ defense stepped up.

ESPN reported Thursday night that linebacker Owen Chambliss, who didn’t play against Ohio, would play against Bowling Green.

Lincoln after dark

Gotta figure the crowd will be pumped up for the first night game of the season. Can’t imagine it’s easy coming into Lincoln as a MAC team under any circumstances. But at night? Oh boy.

Plus, this will be Bowling Green’s first road game of the season.

Nebraska is riding a nice wave after a solid win over Ohio. Such momentum might be difficult to attain later in the season, so enjoy the ride.

Why Bowling Green will win

The quarterback

Kastantin had a big opening game against the FCS’ fifth-ranked team last week. There are two surefire ways to maybe pull an upset — great quarterback play, and winning the turnover battle.

Bowling Green quarterback Jay Kastantin (17) transferred from Division II Assumption over the offseason to join the Falcons. | Bowling Green Athletics

Expect Colandrea to play well, which means Kastantin, who transferred from Assumption College, has to play better. Kastantin passed for 3,658 yards and nine touchdowns at Assumption, a Division II school that plays in the Northeast 10 Conference.

Huskers linebacker Donovan Jones said about Kastantin at a news conference this week: “He’s a good player and they’re a good team.

“They played Tarleton State and they are also really good team. Their defense is flying around. So, I think just locking in on all those little things and just going into this week knowing that they have a player back there and we have to prepare.”

Bowling Green didn’t allow a sack last week against Tarleton State, a good metric if a quarterback is to have a great game.

Jeremiah Scoby

The 6-foot-3 tight end had just one career catch coming into 2026. He had 10 catches for 102 yards against Tarleton State.

He had offers from Air Force, Colorado, Colorado State, Marshall and Memphis, among others, so the presumption is he can play and he has a quarterback who can get him the ball.

The Falcons' overall offense

The Falcons had 366 yards of total offense against Tarleton State, the second-best total in the MAC behind UMass’ 397 yards against Rutgers. The 262 passing yards are tied with Miami (Ohio) for the most in the MAC. Might not be enough against Nebraska.

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