Game Prediction: #22 UCF Golden Knights at #17 Tulane Green Wave

There are only two Group of 5 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings, and those two teams will square off this weekend when the #22 UCF Golden Knights head west to take on the #17 Tulane Green Wave.

The winner puts itself in great position to earn a New Year's Six bowl appearance.

Where: Yulman Stadium (New Orleans, La.)
When: 3:30 PM ET
Network: ESPN2
Line: Tulane -1.5, O/U 54.5

IB has broken down the game and is ready to make predictions.

BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER

Prediction: Tulane 30, UCF 27

This is a battle of two very evenly matched teams. Both are quality offenses, but it's been defense that has helped both teams make improvements in 2022. Both teams rank in the Top 20 in scoring defense, which is why I think my score prediction might even have a few too many points.

Gus Malzahn is building a quality program at UCF, and he is doing different than we've seen in the past. This isn't a high octane offense like it was under Josh Huepel and Scott Frost. Instead, this is a more balanced team that can make stops as well. Tulane's defense has made HUGE strides in the last year, and it has allowed 20 or more points just four times this season.

UCF has been a bit vulnerable through the air, and that's where I see the margin in this game. Not only do I like Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt more than UCF's John Rhys Plumlee, I think Pratt matches up better against the UCF secondary than the other way around. At the end Pratt and Tulane defense will carry the day.

RYAN ROBERTS, RECRUITING DIRECTOR

Prediction: UCF 28, Tulane 24

Tulane is having a magical season. They are led by quarterback Michael Pratt and a staunch defense will several standout defenders. They are opposed by a UCF offense that is potent when they have things moving in rhythm.

It is the Golden Knights who make just a couple more plays than Tulane in this one. Look out for star slot receiver Ryan O’Keefe in this matchup.

VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST

Prediction: Tulane 28, UCF 27

This could be the battle for the NY6 bowl and a chance to play in the Cotton Bowl as the non P5 team to face an at-large bid (Notre Dame anyone?) Tulane has a great shot at this, especially being at home, and I know they are Bryan's darling this season. It is pretty much a pick-em at this point so I am going to take the Green Wave in this one.

SHAUN DAVIS, RECRUITING ANALYST

Prediction: Tulane 38, UCF 31

I’m not shocked at the success that Tulane is having this season. They went on the run against Oklahoma last season and showed the residue of an offense that had the potential to be explosive. Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn continues to build the UCF program and the key to this matchup will be which defensive unit can create more stop and turnovers.

SEAN STIRES, STAFF WRITER

Prediction: UCF 35, Tulane 32

It’s been a minute since UCF had our attention, but the Knights are ranked and have a chance to knock Tulane out of any NY6 conversation. UCF quarterback John Rhys-Plumlee has three 100-yard rushing games and four 300-yard passing games with 18 total touchdowns.

ANDREW McDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR

Prediction: Tulane 28, UCF 20

The winner of this game has the inside track to the American Conference title game and the automatic Group of Five bid to the New Years Six. This is an intriguing, good-on-good matchup that pits the AAC's top offense (UCF) against the top defense (Tulane).

The Green Wave have not been a particularly disruptive defense, but have made their living making plays when they needed to. Tulane ranks first in the conference allowing just 32.1% third down conversions, second in opponent red zone TD percentage (44.4%), and second in turnover margin (+4). Playing in New Orleans in the biggest home game for the Green Wave in at least a generation, the game will come down to turnovers. UCF ranks second-to-last in the AAC with a -5 turnover differential.

IB STAFF STANDINGS

Bryan - 37-10
Ryan - 32-15
Vince - 30-17
Shaun - 29-18
Sean - 27-20
Andrew - 26-21

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