PFF Projects Notre Dame To Have A Major Drop Off In 2022

In one of the more head scratching preseason evaluations I've ever read, Pro Football Focus projects Notre Dame to take a big drop off in the 2022 season. Despite having Notre Dame ranked 7th in its power ranking, PFF also projected Notre Dame's total at just 6.6

The quarterback position and wide receiver position are the two driving forces behind PFF's lack of faith in Notre Dame with both its projected win formula and the written aspects of the analysis.

"Notre Dame is in tip-top shape at virtually every other position than quarterback and wide receiver. While the Fighting Irish have one of college football's best tight ends in Michael Mayer — the second-most valuable tight end from 2021 who is returning this fall — the wide receiver room is a bit thin .... Quarterback Tyler Buchner will take over the keys to the offense. He is a weapon in the designed run game, but his passing ability is still suspect, as he turned in a 48.9p passing grade from 38 dropbacks in 2021." - PFF

It went on to say Notre Dame will be competitive this season, but not a juggernaut.

Notre Dame's national title odds this season, according to PFF, are just 0.2%. That's even down from last season when they were at just 1.0%.

In fact, Notre Dame has steadily gone down in win projections by PFF in each of the last three years. The Irish were projected to have 8.3 wins in 2020 against the pre-Covid schedule. Last season the Irish projected win totals were just 7.4, and once again the wide receiver position was considered the biggest problem on the roster in both years according to PFF.

Notre Dame went 10-2 in a shorter season in 2020 and last season the Irish won 11 games, far surpassing the projected win totals in both seasons.

Now, despite far more proven production returning than what it had in each of the last two seasons, Notre Dame is expected to be even worse than it was in previous seasons.

Some context for how low Notre Dame's projected win total is. Let's look at some other programs, beginning with the ACC:

Clemson - 9.4
Pittsburgh - 8.5
Wake Forest - 8.3
N.C. State - 8.0
North Carolina - 7.7
Miami - 7.4
Virginia - 7.0

Seven ACC teams have a higher projected win total than Notre Dame. The Irish have the same projected win total as Florida State and Virginia Tech, and is closer to Duke (5.7) than it is Pitt, Wake Forest, NC State or North Carolina.

Let's look at the Big Ten:

Ohio State - 10.0
Michigan - 9.1
Minnesota - 8.1
Purdue - 7.7
Michigan State - 7.5
Wisconsin - 7.3
Penn State - 7.1
Iowa - 6.9
Maryland - 6.7

So nine Big Ten teams have a higher projected win total than Notre Dame, and according to PFF the Irish are closer to Illinois (6.0) than they are Purdue, Minnesota and Michigan State. They are closer to Rutgers (4.7) than Michigan or Ohio State.

I'm often critical of PFF outside of its data collection, and things like this are a big reason why. There's just so much faulty logic here, and ignoring recent history for so many different programs. The contradictory nature of its projected win totals and its power rankings is also a bit of a head scratcher.

I'm not a betting man, but if I was I would put down A LOT of money that these projected win totals for Notre Dame won't be anywhere close to what we see from the Fighting Irish on the field this fall.

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