How Does the Sooners on SI Staff Think Oklahoma Will Fare Against Texas?

The Sooners on SI staff offers their predictions for the No. 6-ranked Sooners' battle with the Texas Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry.

Oklahoma receiver Isaiah Sategna | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Sooners on SI staff — John Hoover, Ryan Chapman, Carson Field, Ryan Aber and Brady Trantham — logged their score predictions for the 121st meeting between Oklahoma and Texas in the Red River Rivalry.

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John Hoover

Going into Thursday night, we expected Michael Hawkins to play as John Mateer gets another week to heal his surgically repaired thumb. Instead, Mateer was upgraded to “probable,” meaning he will in all likelihood be in the starting lineup when the Sooners run down the ramp on Saturday. If Mateer is limited, or if Hawkins gets the start, the Oklahoma offense will downshift  — which means the OU defense will find another gear in the Cotton Bowl. If not another defensive touchdown, expect the Sooner front four to create enough havoc that Hawkins won’t have to go far to get his points. OU also dominates in the kicking game with Grayson Miller (leads the nation with a 49.8-yard punting average) and Tate Sandell (both have been SEC Special Teams Players of the Week) bailing out an offense that will struggle to maintain long drives against a very good Longhorn defense. Oklahoma leads the nation in third-down defense, and Texas ranks 115th in third-down offense. OU has allowed 36 points and forced 40 punts, and 33 of the opponents’ 61 drives (54 percent) failed to produce a first down. Even more telling, 48 percent of opponents’ offensive plays have netted zero or negative yardage. In the end, the Sooners will chase and frustrate Arch Manning and will have a massive day on defense.

Final Score: Oklahoma 33, Texas 10

Ryan Chapman 

With all the attention on the quarterback, Oklahoma’s defense somehow hasn’t gotten enough love throughout the week. The Sooners’ defensive line battling the Longhorns’ offensive line will be the biggest mismatch in the Red River Rivalry. Florida’s defensive line wrecked Steve Sarkisian’s game plan, and Arch Manning will have heaps of pressure in his face again on Saturday. The Texas defense will be able to keep the game close, but it’ll be OU’s defensive line that takes the game ball home. 

Final Score: Oklahoma 20, Texas 10

Carson Field 

Assuming John Mateer starts, it will be his first time playing in the Red River Rivalry. This game typically doesn’t bode well for quarterbacks playing in it for the first time. The good news? Arch Manning is also playing in it for the first time. And based on what college football fans have seen through the first six weeks of 2025, the Sooners have the advantage in the quarterback matchup. Mateer will make mistakes, and he might even throw an interception. But Mateer brings arm talent, field vision and mobility that would make Oklahoma’s offense run smoother. He’s proven that he can lead the Sooners past good defenses, doing so against Auburn and Michigan already. A Red River Rivalry win will add to Mateer’s legacy as a star quarterback at OU.

Final Score: Oklahoma 27, Texas 14

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Read More Oklahoma vs. Texas

• Rushing Yards Will Come at a Premium When Oklahoma Battles Texas
• Oklahoma LB Kobie McKinzie Wary of Texas Threat Despite Early Offensive Struggles
• The Sooners’ Texas Game Plan: Don’t Let ‘Oklahoma Beat Oklahoma’

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Ryan Aber 

With two of the best defenses in the country, this figures to be a low-scoring game. This would be the lowest-scoring game in the series since Texas' 16-13 win in 2009. The Sooners don't necessarily need to create defensive points, but they figure to be able to force the Longhorns into turnovers that create a short field. Texas won't roll over and make it easy, but OU's superior defense and special teams groups help it pull out the victory. 

Final Score:  Oklahoma 21, Texas 17

Brady Trantham 

The Longhorns are suffering at the interior of their offensive line — the advantage lies with the Sooners to such an extent that they should be able to dictate the game. That's what OU's defense has done all season. Oklahoma also has a rather decisive advantage on special teams. When you have a defensive coach, a great defense and an excellent kicking game, that typically leads to a victory over a team that struggles to protect their inconsistent quarterback. All the attention has been on who will play at quarterback, John Mateer or Michael Hawkins Jr., for Oklahoma. No matter who does, OU's decisive advantage in the trenches should set up either quarterback to simply make a few plays here and there to get separation. 

Final score: Oklahoma 23, Texas 13