OU GameDay: What X-Factors Could Decide Oklahoma’s SEC Opener Against Auburn?

These are some of the X-Factors for the No. 11 Sooners’ contest with the No. 22-ranked Auburn Tigers.

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The JFA Factor

Good or bad for Oklahoma, Jackson “Freaking” Arnold will have a major impact on this football game. What the OU defense wants is to confuse him, rattle him and pressure him. They know exactly what happens if they do: he’ll suffer turnovers. But if Arnold is calm under duress and delivers the football to his playmakers, it might be the Sooner defense that becomes frustrated. Arnold hasn’t given the football away yet this year. OU’s defense hasn’t had one takeaway. If those trends persist, Auburn will win the football game. But if Venables’ defense can finally get the football back to the offense by intercepting Arnold or making him fumble (he does have two fumbles this season but Auburn got them both), then the Sooners could win in a rout.

— John E. Hoover

Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold returns to Norman on Saturday afternoon. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Let Mateer be Mateer

John Mateer has already established himself as Oklahoma’s next gunslinger. He’s thrown an interception in each of his first three games for the Crimson and Cream, but his ability to create off-schedule far outweighs those miscues. That extends to his work on the ground as well. There is understandable concern that Mateer needs to limit the hits he takes throughout the year to survive a long SEC schedule. But the Sooners need this win to head to the Cotton Bowl 5-0, and OU follows Saturday’s contest with a bye week and a game against perhaps the worst team in the FBS, Kent State. Mateer will have two weeks to hit the cold tub before taking on Texas for the firs time, so if he needs to carry the ball 20 times for Oklahoma to win, let him.

— Ryan Chapman 

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Read More Oklahoma vs. Auburn

• Oklahoma Secondary Thriving so far, but Auburn Could Challenge Sooners Deep
• Why Oklahoma is So Fired Up to Welcome Back Jackson Arnold
• Can John Mateer Stretch TD Streak? Ryan Aber's Three Bold Predictions for Oklahoma-Auburn

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Time for a Turnover

As good as the Sooners have been defensively, they have yet to force a takeaway — and winning the turnover margin will be crucial against the Tigers. Auburn quarterback and former Sooner Jackson Arnold hasn’t turned the ball over in the Tigers’ first three contests. That’s partly a testament to how Arnold has commanded Auburn’s offense. And it’s also a testament to the talent around him with running back Jeremiah Cobb, star wideouts Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. and a strong, experienced offensive line. Oklahoma’s defense needs to disrupt the flow of Auburn’s offense, particularly on the ground. The Tigers are averaging 242 rushing yards per game, so Arnold hasn’t been forced to throw downfield too often. While Arnold looks far more comfortable at Auburn, he still has turnover tendencies. It’s in the best interest of OU’s defense to neutralize the Tigers’ run game and force Arnold to throw.

— Carson Field

Heat

The Sooners have been extremely lucky early in the season with a pair of cooler-than-usual Saturday night games at home to start the season before a trip to the northeast last week. Saturday, though, temperatures are expected to be in the high 80s for the mid-afternoon kickoff. The Sooners could have to battle some cramping and other issues that they haven't faced much to this point. Auburn had to contend with some heat in their season opener at Baylor, but that was a night game and the last two weekends have featured relatively moderate temperatures. The team that handles the weather conditions better figures to have a significant advantage Saturday.

— Ryan Aber

Oklahoma running back Tory Blaylock rushed for 100 yards last week against Temple. | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Lean on the Traditional Run Game

Last week in a win over Temple, Oklahoma had its first 100-yard rusher of the season with Tory Blaylock's 14 carries, two ending up in touchdowns. This was a breath of fresh air for a Sooner offense that, while impressive early on, struggled to allow the traditional run game to thrive in their first two games of the season. Much of the brunt of the Sooners' running attack has come from the legs of John Mateer. Considering the offensive line is a question from an availability standpoint, OU may still need to rely on Mateer's ability to manufacture a running game. If Oklahoma is able to lean on Blaylock and company on the ground, that will only open up more opportunities for the passing attack and Mateer's running abilities on RPO's, specifically cleaner or 'safer' opportunities for QB1 to run. 

— Brady Trantham