Ranking Oklahoma’s Biggest Make-or-Break Games of 2025

With so many quality opponents on Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule, the Sooners have to win their toss-up games.

South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

With so many quality opponents on Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule, the Sooners have to win their toss-up games.

The Sooners have the toughest schedule across college football this year, according to both Sports Illustrated and 247Sports. OU plays a traditional eight-game SEC schedule and also hosts Michigan — the 2023 national title winner — in the non-conference.

After breaking down the most winnable and losable games of the upcoming season, Sooners on SI will look at three games on the slate which could go either way.

Here are the biggest make-or-break games of 2025:

1. Michigan

After battling FCS foe Illinois State in Week 1, the Sooners will host Michigan on Sept. 6.

With 12 claimed national titles and the most wins (1,012) of any program in college football history, the Wolverines are one of only a few programs with more tradition than the Sooners. OU and Michigan have played just once in the programs’ histories, with the Sooners beating the Wolverines in 1976.

Not only is this a rare matchup between blue bloods, it’s a game that features two very unpredictable squads.

Oklahoma, of course, has new offensive direction between quarterback John Mateer and coordinator Ben Arbuckle both arriving in Norman from Washington State. The Sooners also picked up important transfer pieces in wideouts Javonnie Gibson (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), Josiah Martin (Cal), Keontez Lewis (Southern Illinois) and Isaiah Sategna.

Michigan is entering its second season under Sherrone Moore, a former OU guard that took over for Jim Harbaugh, who left the program after the 2023 title. The Wolverines went 8-5 in Moore’s first year, earning a win against Ohio State and a bowl victory against Alabama.

Likely to start at quarterback for Michigan is Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 player from the Class of 2025. Underwood had a 32-6 touchdown-interception ratio as a high-school senior and fills a position that was a revolving door for the Wolverines a year ago.

The Michigan game could be a litmus test of the Sooners’ legitimacy.

It will be OU’s first challenging game, and it’s a prelude to all eight of its SEC contests. There are really only three games that should be comfortable wins for OU on the 12-game schedule, so a win against the Wolverines would show that the Sooners are headed in the right direction and will likely be able to win other toss-up games.

2. South Carolina

The Gamecocks ended 2024 as one of college football’s hottest teams, and expectations are high as they enter 2025.

South Carolina beat Oklahoma 35-9 last October, which was the beginning of a six-game winning streak that the Gamecocks rode to end the regular season. They narrowly missed out on a College Football Playoff berth, instead battling Illinois in the Citrus Bowl.

With several key players back in 2025, South Carolina is No. 15 in ESPN’s Football Power Index.

---

READ MORE OKLAHOMA SOONERS

• Ranking Oklahoma’s Three Most Winnable Games of 2025
• OU Depth Chart: Robert Spears-Jennings Ready to Lead a Talented Oklahoma Safety Unit
• Freshman Phenoms: Oklahoma OL Michael Fasusi Ready to Immediately Contribute

LaNorris Sellers broke out at quarterback as a freshman for the Gamecocks, completing 65.6% of his pass attempts for 2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns. Sellers will have wideouts Nyck Harbor and Mazeo Bennett Jr. at his disposal again in 2025, and the Gamecocks return defensive standouts Dylan Stewart and DQ Smith, too.

---

The South Carolina game last year left a bad taste in the mouths of OU fans. 

The Sooners were fresh off a loss to Texas and were 4-2 at that point. While OU fans expected a return to form, they were instead treated to a beatdown. The Gamecocks led 21-0 in the first quarter, thanks to two defensive touchdowns.

While Sellers did his part — 175 yards and a touchdown on 16-of-24 passing — Oklahoma’s offense allowed the game to get out of hand more than any of South Carolina’s offensive players did.

With Mateer and Arbuckle now directing OU’s offense, the on-field product should be more competent in this go-around against the Gamecocks. That said, playing against the crowd at Williams-Brice Stadium is easy for very few offenses.

The South Carolina game — in Columbia, SC — is on Oct. 18, just a week after the Red River Rivalry game against Texas. It will be interesting to see how OU performs a week after battling its arch rival, regardless of who wins that game.

3. LSU

For the second year in a row, the Sooners will wrap up their regular season against LSU.

Last year, OU was coming down from the high of upsetting No. 7 Alabama to clinch bowl eligibility when they closed their season against the Tigers. The Sooners stayed within reach for the first half, but LSU ran away from them in the final 30 minutes, winning 37-17.

The good news for the Sooners? They don’t have to play at Tiger Stadium, arguably the toughest atmosphere in college football, this season.

The bad news? The Tigers are as talented as always.

Garrett Nussmeier is a trendy pick to win the Heisman Trophy in 2025 after throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024. 

LSU also has one of the deepest wide receiver rooms. The Tigers return wideouts Aaron Anderson and Chris Hilton Jr., and they also snagged Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky) from the transfer portal.

It’s hard to predict what the implications will be of OU’s regular-season finale. A spot in the College Football Playoff could be on the line — or Brent Venables’ job.

Whether the season goes well or it’s another disappointment, the stakes will be high on Nov. 29.