Oregon Ducks Basketball To Miss NCAA Tournament? Statement Wins Needed

Once a top-20 team with marquee wins, the Oregon Ducks basketball team is now fighting to stay competitive in the Big Ten. With crucial matchups ahead, the Ducks must turn things around to secure a spot in the Big Ten tournament and improve their NCAA tournament seeding.

Feb 8, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman talks to Oregon Ducks guard Ra'Heim Moss (0) during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images / Dale Young-Imagn Images

EUGENE – The Oregon Ducks men's basketball team’s season has taken a dramatic turn. Once a top-20 ranked team with wins over No. 2 Alabama and No. 8 Texas A&M, Oregon has now dropped five consecutive games.

The Ducks have fallen to Minnesota, UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan, and most recently No. 9 Michigan State. With the Big Ten tournament looming, Oregon must find a way to turn their season around in order to secure a spot in the conference tournament as well as make it to the NCAA tournament. 

Michigan State's Jaden Akins, right, guards Oregon's Jackson Shelstad during the second half on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025, at the Breslin Center East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Against Michigan State on Saturday, the Ducks looked poised to snap their losing streak, taking a 14-point lead into halftime. However, the second half was a different story as the Spartans came out of the locker room firing on all cylinders.

The Ducks were outscored in the second half 50-24 while shooting just 25 percent from the field. The Ducks struggled defensively, allowing Michigan State’s Jace Richardson to go off for a career-high 29 points. Michigan State’s 11-0 run midway through the half flipped the game, and the Ducks never recovered. 

“We gave them four open threes in the second half, and the game kinda changed on that,” said Oregon coach Dana Altman after the loss. “Our ball movement in the second half was awful; we took some really bad shots.” 

“I’m not sure who was coaching that team in the second half, but he did a sh*tty job, I know that,” Altman added, taking accountability for the loss. 

Feb 8, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Oregon Ducks guard TJ Bamba (5) drives against Michigan State Spartans forward Coen Carr (55) during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images / Dale Young-Imagn Images

After Saturday’s loss to the Spartans, the Ducks hold a 16-8 overall record while posting a 5-8 record in Big Ten play. Oregon is in a three-way tie at No. 11 in the Big Ten conference. With only 15 teams going to the Big Ten conference tournament, Oregon’s next three games could determine the team’s fate.

Oregon is set to host Northwestern and Rutgers, followed by a trip to Iowa—three teams below the Ducks in the standings. If the Ducks want to prove that they belong in the postseason conversation, these games are not only must-wins, but they must be statement victories. 

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Historically, Northwestern is one of the worst power conference programs, while Rutgers is tied with Oregon at No. 11 in the conference standings. Losing either of these games could make missing the Big Ten tournament a legitimate possibility.

With the conference standings as close as they are, Oregon’s performance across its next games will determine whether the Ducks will make the Big Ten tournament. Any loss could keep Oregon out. 

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo, left, and Oregon's head coach Dana Altman shake hands before the game on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025, at the Breslin Center East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The top 15 teams in the Big Ten will make the Big Ten basketball tournament, with the top nine seeds receiving a first-round bye, while the top four seeds receive a double bye. The teams are seeded by conference record. 

While the Ducks attempt to claw their way up the conference standings and seek a better seed in the conference tournament, Oregon still has a big opportunity down the road that could change the trajectory of its season. The Ducks will head to No. 16 Wisconsin on Feb. 22. This game will be Oregon’s last chance to secure a win over a team that is positively playing in the NCAA tournament. 

There are less than five weeks until Selection Sunday when the NCAA tournament teams will be announced. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had the Ducks listed as a No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament with a potential matchup against the Georgia Bulldogs prior to Oregon’s loss to Michigan State; however, this is subject to change. 

Feb 8, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Tre Holloman (5) drives past Oregon Ducks center Nate Bittle (32) for a basket and foul during the second half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images / Dale Young-Imagn Images

Although Oregon has struggled to find wins in recent games, there is still a lot of basketball left to play with a big opportunity to upset No. 16 Wisconsin later this month. A win over the Badgers would provide a much-needed boost to their NCAA tournament resume.

With Oregon currently sitting on the bubble in the Big Ten standings, every remaining game carries weight. Strong performances against Northwestern, Rutgers, and Iowa could solidify their spot in the conference tournament, while a signature win over Wisconsin could help their seeding for March Madness. However, another loss or two could put them in a dangerous position, forcing them to rely on a deep Big Ten tournament run to secure an at-large bid.

With Selection Sunday approaching, the Ducks are running out of time to prove they belong. The next few weeks will determine whether Oregon is dancing in March or watching from home. 

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