What Advanced Analytics Say About Oregon vs. Indiana

The Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers are set to face off at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 11. Oregon coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks have not lost a home game since 2022. Will the Hoosiers be able to snap the nation's longest home winning streak?

Nov 16, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talks to the media during the post game press conference following the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers will meet this weekend on Saturday, October. 11 at Autzen Stadium. It will be a top 10 ranked matchup with No. 7 Indiana and the No. 3 Ducks, making it the site for ESPN’s College GameDay.

Who has the edge in this matchup?

Oregon vs. Indiana Preview, FPI Predictions 

Sep 27, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning reacts after defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-Imagn Images | James Lang-Imagn Images

Oregon has a 69.4 percent chance to beat Indiana according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. 

According to ESPN's FPI, Oregon is the No. 2 team in the country behind only Ohio State. The Hoosiers are not far off, ranked No. 4.

This is a game between a pair of 5-0 teams coming off of a bye week. Oregon’s last outing was an epic double overtime road win against the Penn State Nittany Lions. The Hoosiers were able to outlast the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road in their most recent test. 

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Both quarterbacks are in the running for the Heisman trophy. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has been incredible this season, throwing for 1,210 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interceptions. 

Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards, 16 touchdowns, and one interception. Mendoza has played one game at Autzen Stadium when he was a member of the California Golden Bears back in 2023. Oregon won this game 63-19 with Mendoza throwing for 177 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. 

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Oregon vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) throws a pass against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Ducks are currently a 7-point home favorite against the visiting Hoosiers. Oregon has odds of -305 to win the game outright while Indiana is +245.

The over/under is at 55.5 points. 

Oregon vs. Indiana Score Prediction

Oregon Ducks inside linebacker Bryce Boettcher walks off the field as the Oregon Ducks host the Oregon State Beavers Sept. 20, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places in the country to play for road teams. In fact, Oregon has the longest current active home winning streak at 18 games. This streak goes all the way back to Dan Lanning’s first season as Oregon Ducks coach in 2022 when they fell to the Washington Huskies. 

The home success goes back even further than that, before Lanning. Oregon was undefeated at home from 2019 through 2021, and only had one loss in 2018. Winning outright will be a tall task for the Hoosiers.

Indiana and Oregon both made the College Football Playoff last season and look to strengthen their case in 2025 with a win on Saturday. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti could make the playoff in his first two seasons as coach, which would be quite the accomplishment.

The Hoosiers may end up making the playoff, but they aren't winning on the road against Oregon. Oregon won't blow Indiana out of the water, but their elite run game will be the key factor to keeping the Hoosiers at an arm's length away.

Ducks win and cover in a game that they control for the final three quarters.

Oregon 35, Indiana 24

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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