Analytics Project Every Game on Oregon Ducks' Schedule

Fall camp is just around the corner for coach Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks, as they prepare to make a big postseason push and contend for a national title.

While college football analysts make their predictions for the 2026 season, computer analytics has its own thoughts about which teams will be successful. Here are the Ducks’ predicted chances for each regular-season game, according to ESPN’s analytics.

Oregon Ducks’ Win Percentage vs. Opponents, According to ESPN Analytics

oregon ducks fpi dan lanning dante moore college football playoff big ten national championship ohio state buckeyes espn — Oregon football coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field before the game against Oregon State at Autzen Stadium Friday, Nov. 24, 2023. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Sept. 5 vs. Boise State Broncos: Oregon favored at 94.8 percent
Sept. 12 at Oklahoma State Cowboys: Oregon favored at 90.8 percent
Sept. 18 vs. Portland State Vikings: Oregon favored at 99.0 percent
Sept. 26 at USC Trojans: Oregon favored at 67.3 percent
Oct. 10 vs. UCLA Bruins: Oregon favored at 96.7 percent
Oct. 17 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: Oregon favored at 92.0 percent
Oct. 24 at Illinois Fighting Illini: Oregon favored at 85.0 percent
Oct. 31 vs. Northwestern Wildcats: Oregon predicted at 96.8 percent
Nov. 7 at Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State predicted at 71.6 percent
Nov. 14 vs. Michigan Wolverines: Oregon predicted at 83.9 percent
Nov. 20 at Michigan State Spartans: Oregon predicted at 93.1 percent
Nov. 28 vs. Washington Huskies: Oregon predicted at 89.6 percent

Predicted Loss

The Ducks are given over a 90 percent chance to win seven of their 12 regular-season games, showing the high expectations for the program in 2026. ESPN’s analytics give Oregon the highest predicted chance to defeat the Vikings at 99 percent confidence.

The only game the Ducks aren’t predicted to win in 2026 is the Nov. 7 matchup against the Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio. Oregon is only given a 24.8 percent chance to win that road meeting between two Big Ten powerhouses.

If the analytics prove to be true and the only Ducks loss in the regular season is in Ohio, the program should be a lock to make the College Football Playoff. How close that Oregon vs. Ohio State game ends up being might also have major implications on the Ducks’ seeding, regardless of the outcome.

National Championship Prediction

The ESPN Football Power Index also projected the Ducks’ chances to win the Big Ten, make the CFP and win the National Championship. Oregon is No. 4 in the preseason FPI rankings, behind Ohio State (No. 1), the Texas Longhorns (No. 2) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (No. 3).

Oregon earned a 64,7 percent chance of making the CFP and a 24.2 percent chance of winning the Big Ten. The Ducks have a 9.8 percent chance of winning the National Championship and a 17.7 percent chance of making the title game.

While the computer projections ultimately have no impact on what Oregon ends up doing on the field in 2026, it does show the continued progress the program has made. With quarterback Dante Moore and key positions like the defensive line returning starters in 2026, Lanning is in a good position to build off the team’s semifinal finish a season ago.

Dominant game-by-game projections and only trailing Ohio State for overall season odds show that the computer analytics are in line with what pundits are saying about Oregon. Now it's up to the Ducks to either prove the predictions right or wrong.

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