Oregon Ducks Chasing Big Ten Rivals in Preseason Analytics Ranking

The Oregon Ducks have already earned hopeful predictions for their ranking and outcome in the 2026 season by pundits and sports media outlets. Coach Dan Lanning returns key players in his starting lineup who made the College Football Playoff semifinal a season ago, while adding top talent.

But the early analytical preseason ranking for ESPN’s Football Power Index didn’t put the Ducks as high as analysts think.

Oregon Ducks’ Preseason FPI Ranking

oregon ducks dan lanning ohio state buckeyes preseason ranking fernando mendoza indiana hoosiers usc trojans michigan — Oregon head coach Dan Lanning on the sideline during the first half of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff NCAA college football game between Oregon and Georgia in Atlanta, on Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. News Joshua L Jones | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

According to ESPN, the FPI “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date and the remaining schedule.”

The Ducks landed at No. 4 in the preseason rankings, trailing the Notre Dae Fighting Irish (No. 3), the Texas Longhorns (No. 2) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (No. 1). Oregon has 10.2 projected wins to 2.3 projected losses. The Ducks have an 8.5 percent chance to win out and a 9.8 percent chance to win the National Championship. They have a 64.7 percent chance of making the CFP and a 24.2 percent chance of winning the Big Ten.

How the Oregon Ducks Compare to Big Ten Programs

The Ducks are chasing the Buckeyes for the No. 1 spot after Ohio State lost in the CFP quarterfinal last season. The Buckeyes bring back starting quarterback Julian Sayin, who was a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2025, and standout receiver Jeremiah Smith. The Ducks and Buckeyes do play in Columbus, Ohio, in 2026, which will be a key matchup for both teams' postseason hopes and will heavily influence FPI.

Oregon does rank higher than the Indiana Hoosiers in preseason FPI. The Hoosiers come off their first National Championship win and beat the Ducks in the semifinals. Indiana lost Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza to the NFL in the offseason, as well as other key pieces. The Hoosiers rank No. 6 in preseason FPI, just two spots behind Oregon.

Only four other Big Ten programs rank in the top-25 of the preseason FPI. The USC Trojans are ranked No. 13, the Michigan Wolverines are ranked No. 15, the Penn State Nittany Lions are ranked No. 17 and the Iowa Hawkeyes are ranked No. 25.

What the Oregon Ducks' Schedule Means for Their FPI Future

Oregon plays just three of the top-25 preseason FPI teams in the regular season. That could be detrimental to the Ducks’ hopes of soaring to the top spot in both FPI and the AP top-25 if they don’t win out.

A win against Ohio State would have Oregon skyrocketing in the FPI. On the other hand, a loss to a low-ranked team would drop the Ducks’ FPI ranking tremendously. Wins against the trio of Michigan, USC and Ohio State will be critical to Oregon’s chance of earning a favorable seed entering the CFP and will elevate the program’s confidence against top competition.

The good news for Oregon is that it ranks higher than it did in preseason FPI championship odds a season ago. The Ducks are up two spots from a No. 6 preseason projection in 2025. Lanning’s team did rise in the FPI as the season progressed before their first loss to Indiana plummeted them in the rankings.

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