Oregon Ducks' Big Ten, National Championship Chances Shift

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks may have dropped a couple of spots this week in the AP Poll, but Dan Lanning’s squad continues to stay atop ESPN’s football power index (FPI) amid a 3-0 start.

The Ducks were big risers in the FPI after week 2 to jump to the No. 1 spot. The FPI predicts how many points above or below the average team a program is using 20,000 season simulations. It determines a team’s strength on a net points scale with expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field.

Oregon may not have earned as large a margin of victory in week 3 as it did in the first two games, but its undefeated record was enough to keep it in first.

Top 10

oregon ducks dan lanning big ten recruiting transfer portal nil northwestern wildcats dante moore oregon state ohio state — Sep 13, 2025; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning leads his team on the field against the Northwestern Wildcats at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

1. Oregon Ducks: 24.2 FPI

2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 22.3 FPI

3. Alabama Crimson Tide: 22.0 FPI

4. Georgia Bulldogs: 21.5 FPI

5. USC Trojans: 20.6 FPI

6. Texas Longhorns: 19.8 FPI

7. Penn State Nittany Lions: 19.4 FPI

8. Ole Miss Rebeles: 18.8 FPI

9. Tennessee Volunteers: 18.6 FPI

10. Michigan Wolverines: 17.1 FPI

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The Ducks’ Chances Drop

Despite holding on to the highest score, Oregon’s chances dropped slightly in week 3. The Ducks’ 34-14 victory over Northwestern wasn’t as impressive as their dominant 59-13 and 69-3 wins over Montana state and Oklahoma State, respectively.

The squad gave up two late touchdowns to the Wildcats and the defensive line struggled to stop the run game. Still, Oregon made improvements in other areas, such as committing zero penalties.

“There’s going to be some film for us to go back and really attack,” Lanning said after the game. “Again, I think they had some good answers that we have to have a good plan for moving forward. I thought the energy on the sideline was really good. Just disappointed with the last couple of drives on both sides of the ball … Guys were focused and attentive, but we just didn’t finish the way that I want to finish.”

The Ducks predicted chances to repeat as Big Ten Conference Champions went from 33.7 percent to 31.7 percent. Their predicted chances to make the College Football Playoff (CFP) went from 80.6 percent to 76.7 percent, chances of making the National Championship went from 29.8 percent to 27.8 and chances of winning the National Championship went from 17 percent to 16.1 percent.

The Buckeyes moved up a spot in FPI to trail Oregon by just over two points. The Wolverines made the biggest jump of any team in the top 10, moving up 19 spots.

The Ducks will play the Nittany Lions in week 5, who rank in the top 10 in both FPI and the AP Poll. The Trojans are the only other team in the FPI top 10 who Oregon is scheduled to play in the regular season. USC just jumped into the top 25 in the AP Poll as well.

Next on the schedule for the Ducks is their in-state rival, the Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers have had a difficult start to the season, to say the least, losing their first three games. Oregon will look to secure another convincing win at Autzen Stadium to boost its FPI score and title hopes ahead of a test at Penn State.