Advanced Analytics Predict Surprising Winner In Oregon vs. Texas Tech

With a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Peach Bowl at stake, the Oregon Ducks and Texas Tech will square off in the Orange Bowl for the first time in program history. How do the advanced analytics break down the matchup?

Nov 14, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning high fives fans before a game between the Oregon Ducks and the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks will be taking on the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff on Thursday, Jan. 1. The winner of this Orange Bowl will advance to the semifinal game against either the Indiana Hoosiers or Alabama Crimson Tide. 

What do the analytics say about this playoff showdown?

Oregon vs. Texas Tech FPI Prediction, Preview

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the field during an open practice ahead of the Orange Bowl at the Moshofsky Center in Eugene, Oregon on Dec. 27, 2025. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon has a 48.4 percent chance to beat Texas Tech, giving the Red Raiders the nod to earn the victory. This is surprising, considering the Ducks are a 2.5-point favorite in most betting odds, including DraftKings.

The Ducks are the third-highest rated team in the Big Ten with an FPI rating of 25.2. The two teams ahead of Oregon in the Big Ten are Indiana and Ohio State. 

The Red Raiders are the top rated team in the Big 12 conference with a rating of 23.0.

Oregon is coming off a first round playoff win over the James Madison Dukes by final score of 51-34. The Ducks enter the Orange Bowl with a 12-1 record. The lone loss of the season was at home to Indiana. The Hoosiers are 13-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the playoff. 

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore celebrates the Ducks' victory over James Madison at the end of the game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene Dec. 20, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Ducks are led by quarterback Dante Moore, who has thrown for 3,046 yards and 28 touchdowns. Moore has been impressive this season and is projected to be an early first round selection in the 2026 NFL Draft if he were to declare. 

Texas Tech received a first round bye has not been in action since their 34-7 win in the Big 12 championship over the BYU Cougars. Texas Tech is 12-1 with their one loss coming on the road to the Arizona State Sun Devils. Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton did not play in that game. Morton has thrown for 2,643 yards and 22 touchdowns this season. 

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Oregon vs. Texas Tech Betting Odds

Texas Tech's Behren Morton looks to pass against BYU during the Big 12 Championship football game, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2025, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite being an underdog in the eyes of ESPN’s FPI outlook, Oregon is a 2.5-point favorite over Texas Tech according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Ducks opened up as 1.5-point favorites, but that number has slowly creeped up. Oregon has odds of -130 to win outright while the Red Raiders are at +110.

The current over/under is at 52.5 points. 

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Score Prediction 

Oregon coach Dan Lanning, left, and James Madison coach Bob Chesney meet at midfield after the game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene Dec. 20, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Texas Tech defense one of the best units in the entire country. They have allowed just 10.9 points per game, the third lowest in the nation behind Indiana and Ohio State. Oregon’s offense will have it’s hands full.

Oregon is getting healthier when it comes to their pass catchers so their will be more opportunity for Moore to unleash an aerial attack. However, the key for the Ducks may end up being the ground game with their deep room of running backs. 

For the prediction here at Oregon Ducks on SI... The Ducks win and cover in a close, low scoring affair.

Oregon 23, Texas Tech 17

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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