Oregon Ducks In Surprising Position for Big Ten, National Championship Race

The conclusion of week 2 action meant another round of shakeups in ESPN’s football power index (FPI).

The FPI is a measurement of a team’s strength on a net points scale with expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field. It predicts how many points above or below the average team a program is based on 20,000 season simulations.

The No. 4 Oregon Ducks saw themselves take a big jump in the FPI rankings following a week 2 victory over the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

A New No. 1

dan lanning oregon ducks college football playoff big ten championship ohio state buckeyes penn state nittany lions rankings — Sep 6, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning greets fans before a game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Oregon has outscored its opponents 128-16 in the first two weeks of the season.

Following a pair of thrashings over Montana State and Oklahoma State, the Ducks are now the No. 1 team in the FPI with a score of 24.5. Oregon has the best chance of winning the Big Ten Conference Championship with a 33.7 percent chance, compared to the Ohio State Buckeyes, who come in second with a 29.8 percent chance.

Additionally, Dan Lanning’s program has the best chance at making (29.8 percent) and winning (17 percent) the National Championship. However, the Buckeyes lead the nation with an 83 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff (CFP), but the Ducks are second with an 80.6 chance.

All 18 Big Ten programs still rank inside the FPI 100, and four teams, including Oregon and Ohio State, rank inside the top 10.

In Sunday’s AP Poll, the Ducks did jump a couple of spots to No. 4, trailing the Buckeyes, the Penn State Nittany Lions and the LSU Tigers. The FPI simulations believe the Ducks have a higher potential to go far this season than their current national ranking.

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Oregon The Underdogs?

The Ducks have largely flown under the radar in the offseason, despite winning the 2024 Big Ten Championship and spending most of the season ranked No. 1.

Lanning’s roster is filled with talent, although many unexperienced in the college football environment prior to the start of the season. After the first two games, the youth on Oregon’s roster doesn’t seem to be hindering it. Instead, it’s just added depth.

“It's hard to prepare for when you know that multiple guys can have success, multiple guys can score,” Lanning said following the win over Oklahoma State. “And again, the part that always makes me excited is seeing how the people on the sideline that weren't scoring, or the people that were in the game not scoring, are the guys celebrating the hardest. We want to celebrate good football, it's about team. I preach to our guys all week that our team is the secret sauce, the way that we're connected. And I think that showed up in this game.”

Oregon is set to play its first road game of the season, with a game at Northwestern next on the schedule. Then, the Ducks will face a 0-2 Oregon State Beavers team at Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks’ big test of the regular season doesn’t happen until Sept. 27, when they play at Penn State in what could be a preview of a CFP matchup. A matchup with the Indiana Hoosiers the following week is the only other ranked opponent Oregon currently has on its schedule.