Oregon Ducks' Big Ten, National Championship Chances Shift Before Penn State Game

Perhaps the biggest test of the regular season lies ahead of the No. 6 Oregon Ducks with a road game against the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions in week 5.

While Oregon continued its 4-0 start to the season, the team’s chances at a successful postseason have not changed in the latest ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).

The FPI predicts how many points above or below the average team a program is using 20,000 season simulations. It determines a team’s strength on a net points scale with expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field.

National Top 10

oregon ducks big ten dan lanning national championship recruiting transfer portal nil penn state nittany lions ohio state — Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning as the Oregon Ducks host the Oregon State Beavers Sept. 20, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Oregon Ducks: 23.6 FPI
2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 22.4 FPI
3. Alabama Crimson Tide: 22.2 FPI
4. Georgia Bulldogs: 21.7 FPI
5. Texas Longhorns: 21.4 FPI
6. Indiana Hoosiers: 21.4 FPI
7. Ole Miss Rebels: 20.7 FPI
8. USC Trojans: 19.6 FPI
9. Tennessee Volunteers: 18.7 FPI
10. Penn State Nittany Lions: 18.5 FPI

Oregon’s Chances Steadily Fall

The Ducks rose to the top spot in FPI after massive victories in the first two weeks of the season. They remain the program with the best overall score, but their postseason chances have dropped in the past two weeks compared to what they were.

Oregon’s chance of winning the Big Ten Conference Championship were 33.7 percent two weeks ago and are now 26 percent, although that’s still better than any other Big Ten program.

The Ducks' predicted chances of making the College Football Playoff (CFP) went from 80.6 percent to 72.4 percent, chances of making the National Championship dropped from 29.8 percent to 22.4 percent and chances of winning the National Championship went from 17 percent to 12.2 percent in two weeks.

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Major Shift In Big Ten

The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes are gaining on Oregon when it comes to Big Ten Championship chances. The Buckeyes also have the best chances in the Big Ten and nationally at making the CFP, making the National Championship and winning the National Championship.

Outside of the Ducks and Buckeyes, who continue to dominate the FPI in the Big Ten, lots of movement has happened around them. The No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers made a major jump in FPI after defeating Illinois. The Hoosiers rose 10 spots in FPI to sit at No. 6 in the nation.

Indiana has the third-best chances of winning the conference and joins Oregon and Ohio State as the only Big Ten teams to have over a 50 percent chance of making the CFP. The Hoosiers play the Ducks at Autzen Stadium in October in what will be tough back-to-back games for Oregon.

The Fighting Illini dropped 14 spots in the FPI following the loss to Indiana. The USC Trojans also went from being No. 5 nationally to No. 8 in FPI ranking.

Penn State also took a tumble heading into the week 5 game against Oregon. The Nittany Lions also fell three spots in the FPI, now being No. 10 nationally. Even though the last time the Ducks and Nittany Lions played was in the 2024 Big Ten Championship, Penn State currently has an eight percent chance of reaching the conference title game.