How Oregon Ducks' Playoff Path Compares To Other One-Loss Teams

The No. 13 Oregon Ducks’ path to a third consecutive College Football Playoff berth is proving to be anything but easy. Coach Dan Lanning program ran into tougher-than-expected non-conference opponents and now enters a stretch of eight straight Big Ten games without a bye week.

With one loss already on their record, Oregon likely can’t afford more than one additional loss in order to make the postseason. To the Ducks’ luck, there are already a handful of contenders, including in the Big Ten, with one loss entering Week 6.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore warms up as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Below are the top contenders with one loss on their records that the Ducks are battling, with opponents including their latest AP Poll ranking.

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes

Loss: 24-23 at No. 1 Texas Longhorns (Week 2)

If the Buckeyes continue on as they’ve been playing, they won’t be denied a CFP spot. Despite seven undefeated teams ranked below them in the latest AP Poll, Ohio State still occupies the No. 5 spot.

The Buckeyes have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in receiver Jeremiah Smith and already have a signature win against a gritty Iowa team. Their only loss came down to the final drive against the Longhorns, who rank No. 1.

The Ducks still have to play the Buckeyes, and Ohio State still has ranked matchups against top-25 Indiana and USC teams (a three-week stretch). As long as it takes care of business against non-ranked opponents and doesn’t lose more than once in those three games, it can just about be considered a postseason lock given its schedule.

No. 10 LSU Tigers

Oct 3, 2026; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Lane Kiffin looks on against the McNeese Cowboys during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Loss: 32-24 at No. 9 Ole Miss (Week 3)

LSU has the benefit of its loss coming against a top-10 team on the road. ESPN writer Paolo Uggetti even argued that the Tigers are the best one-loss team outside of the Buckyes, and would likely be favored against the Ducks on a neutral field. But on the other hand, all four of coach Lane Kiffin’s squad have come at home and have only one top-25 win at the moment against a Texas A&M team that has since dropped out of the rankings.

The Tigers still have ranked matchups against No. 17 Mississippi State, No. 6 Alabama, No. 1 Texas and No. 15 Tennessee. Only the game against the Vols comes on the road.

If LSU wins out, it should make the CFP just like any other team on this list. One loss against one of the ranked opponents should also allow the Tigers to squeak in, especially if it's to Alabama or Texas.

No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels

Loss: 52-28 at No. 16 Florida Gators (Week 4)

The good news for Ole Miss is that it has the edge over LSU to get in by taking the regular-season matchup. The bad news is that, outside of Oregon, the Rebels have the second-lowest-ranked loss on this list, according to the latest AP Poll.

The Rebels do have two ranked wins under its belt, with an opening win over the then-ranked No. 24 Louisville Cardinals also being on their resume. They still have to play the top-two ranked teams in Texas and Georgia, as well as No. 14 Missouri and No. 17 Mississippi State.

The loss to Florida (and by three-plus touchdowns) really hinders Ole Miss’ chances of making the CFP. Tough matches lie ahead and more than one slip-up isn’t likely to cut it.

No. 19 USC Trojans

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, shakes hands with USC head coach Lincoln Riley as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Sept. 26, 2026, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Loss: 41-27 vs. No. 13 Oregon Ducks (Week 4)

The Trojans are one of three one-loss teams within the Big Ten that Oregon is battling for a spot, and the Ducks were the reason for the defeat.

Coach Lincoln Riley’s squad has certainly created concern within the fanbase, and recent performances have even caused many to consider Riley on the hot seat. Three ranked matchups remain, with those being against No. 5 Ohio State, No. 7 Indiana and No. 21 UCLA.

Beyond those three games, the four road games (which include Indiana and the UCLA game, which is still in LA) could pose a challenge. The Trojans didn’t look their best on the road against a 1-4 Rutgers team. There isn’t necessarily an easy matchup left for USC, but it has the opportunity to block out the noise and weather the storm.

No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes

Loss: 31-14 vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (Week 5)

The Ducks don’t play the Hawkeyes this season, but this is a program that’s a serious threat to their playoff hopes.

Iowa only has one loss, and it’s a respectful one to a title favorite in Ohio State. Unlike Oregon, Ohio State or USC, the Hawkeyes are arguably over the worst of their schedule.

Sep 19, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during the first quarter against the UNI Panthers at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

They no longer have any more games against teams ranked in the latest AP Poll. Their toughest matchups are against upset-minded Minnesota and Northwestern teams on the road, a home game against the Cornhuskers in the season finale and whoever they would play if they made the Big Ten Championship.

The Big Ten is already showing early into conference play that anything is possible on any given day, but watch out for coach Kirk Ferentz’s squad as a CFP contender.

The Oregon Ducks’ Case

Loss: 39-31 at No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (Week 2)

The loss to Oklahoma State presents both the same pro and con: an early-season loss. On one hand, the Ducks have little room for error for the remainder of a long regular season. On the other hand, they can prove that an early-season defeat doesn’t define them.

Recency bias can help the committee overlook their Week 2 loss compared to undefeated programs that may drop a game late in the season. But Oregon has a tough road ahead and will need to take care of business.

It already has an edge over USC by taking it down in Week 4. It could have a similar case over Ohio State if it can beat the Buckeyes on Nov. 7.

Jan 1, 2025; Pasadena, CA, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day (right) shakes hands with Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning at the conclusion of the Rose Bowl game at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The defeat to an Oklahoma State team that lost its Week 1 game and entered with only one outing under a new head coach didn’t seem good for Oregon’s resume in the moment. Neither did a close win over Boise State in Week 1. Both programs are currently ranked in the top-25, however, aging both performances in a more positive light.

It’s worth noting that in the cases of Oregon, Ohio State, USC and Iowa, they could all very well have additional company in one-loss Big Ten teams as soon as after Week 6. UCLA, Nebraska and Indiana all remain undefeated, but two of those teams play each other on Oct. 10, while the Bruins are at Oregon.

Picking up a third-ranked victory over No. 21 UCLA and potential victories over competitive Nebraska and Northwestern teams would bode well for the Ducks to make the CFP. Many of the top teams in the Big Ten will play each other down the stretch and inevitably cancel each other out.

The bottom line for the Ducks is win, and they’re in. Oregon can’t rely on matchups outside of its control to dictate its postseason chances. If the Ducks do lose, it will likely require a close loss to one of the ranked opponents to still get them into the playoff picture.

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