Advanced Analytics Predict Winner of Oregon vs. Indiana Rematch in Playoff

The Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers will play for the second time this season in the Peach Bowl for a spot in the national championship game. Indiana won the first matchup back in October. What do the analytics have to say about this time around.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, shakes hands with Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti as the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers Oct. 11, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kickoff between the No. 5 Oregon Ducks and No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers for a spot in the national championship game is approaching. The game is scheduled for Friday, Jan. 9 at 4:30 p.m. PT and will be broadcast on ESPN. 

What do the analytics say about this College Football Playoff semifinal game in the Peach Bowl?

Oregon vs. Indiana FPI Prediction, Preview 

Oct 11, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning instructs his team from the sideline against the Indiana Hoosiers during the third quarter at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Oregon has a 29.6 percent chance to beat Indiana according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. 

The Ducks are the third highest FPI rated team in the Big Ten at 25.3 while the Hoosiers are No. 1 at 30.4. 

Both of these teams are coming off defensive masterclasses in their quarterfinal wins. Oregon shutout Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl. A few hours later, Indiana dominated Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. 

It will be a matchup between two quarterbacks that are widely considered to go No. 1 and No. 2 in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy this season, leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated 14-0 record coming into this game. Mendoza has thrown for 3,172 yards and 36 touchdowns.

Jan 1, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) stands in the pocket against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the second half of the 2025 Orange Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

On the other side of the field is Oregon quarterback Dante Moore. Moore sat behind Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel last season and it looks to have paid off. Moore and the Ducks are 13-1. He has thrown for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns. 

The Ducks and Hoosiers played once already this season, with Indiana going into Autzen Stadium and winning 30-20. This was Moore’s worst game as an Oregon starter. The Indiana defense held him to 21/34 passing for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.

MORE: Curt Cignetti Speaks Candidly On Oregon Ducks Playoff Rematch

MORE: Oregon's Three Most Impactful Transfer Portal Departures

MORE: Oregon Freshman Brandon Finney Turns Heads With Comments After Orange Bowl

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER HERE!   

Oregon vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Oct 11, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks linebacker Jerry Mixon (54) sacks Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) during the third quarter at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite against Oregon according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The underdog Ducks have odds of +150 to win outright while the Hoosiers are at -180. The current over/under is at 46.5 points. 

As for the odds to win the national championship, Indiana is the favorite at +130. The Miami Hurricanes are second at +310, then it’s Oregon at +320, and Ole Miss at +600.

The other semifinal game between Miami and Ole Miss kicks off on Thursday, Jan 8.

Oregon vs. Indiana Score Prediction

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore scrambles with the ball as the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers Oct. 11, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon will get another shot at the only team to beat them this season in Indiana. The Ducks have the talent to compete, but the Hoosiers have been the best team in the country all season long. It’s just that many thought it was Ohio State until Indiana defeated them in the Big Ten title game. 

The Ducks will be able to hang around but it’s hard to not pick the Hoosiers in this spot. This could end up being more bulletin board material for Oregon coach Dan Lanning. Indiana wins and covers.

Indiana 27, Oregon 17

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
• If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.