Final Forecast: Predicting the Finish to the 2022 Recruiting Class

How will Oregon’s 2022 class shape up when the signatures are all in?

Author:
Reid Tingley
Publish date:
Jul 2, 2021 12:09 PM EDT

After a busy June of official visits, the picture for Oregon’s 2022 class is starting to get a bit clearer as we enter July. To reflect on all the recent news and show how it fits into Oregon’s plans for this cycle, Ducks Digest is debuting a new series called “Final Forecast.”

The goal is simple, to predict which recruits will end up signing with the Ducks when all said and done. I hope to update my predictions at the start of each month, assuming there are changes to share.

Quarterback (1)

Tanner Bailey

Oregon picked up its quarterback early in this cycle and I expect Bailey to be the only signal caller who joins the Ducks on signing day.

Running Back

(0) None

While the Ducks could add a ball carrier as the cycle winds down, there isn’t one that sticks out to me now as a likely addition to this class. I think it’s more likely that Oregon waits to address the RB spot until next year, given their depth chart is already loaded with young backs.

Receiver (4)

Stephon Johnson, Nicholas Anderson, Isaiah Sategna, Tetairoa McMillan

Anderson was a new and, frankly, surprising addition for the Ducks. That recruitment was seemingly kept under wraps until about an hour before the announcement. Anderson is a good pickup for Oregon, but puts them in a numbers crunch at receiver with likely two spots left and a bunch of quality options.

Johnson has been committed for three months and is a big time peer recruiter for this class and I certainly expect his commitment to stick.

Sategna is down to Oregon or USC and I believe the Ducks hold the lead in part because of their storied excellence in track, something Sategna highlighted in his interview with Max Torres.

Tetairoa McMillan recently visited Oregon and the Ducks made a real impression, as you can read in his interview with Max Torres. Many fans were also encouraged by his decision to postpone a planned trip to USC at the end of June. I like Oregon’s chances to hold off USC and also Arizona for a commitment from McMillan.

The Ducks could hold off after four commitments if spots are tight or they may not end up signing one of the four players I mentioned. Honestly, when I was initially forming this list I didn’t foresee the Anderson commitment breaking on Thursday and had forecasted an alternative name to end up as the Ducks' fourth receiver.

I was ready to make a bold prediction for the Ducks to gain some late momentum and land 5-star wide receiver Kevin Coleman. However, after taking Anderson on Thursday I’ve decided to hold off. If it isn’t Coleman, I think that in-state prospect Darrius Clemons could be another possible inclusion for this final spot.

Tight End (1)

Andre Dollar

Similar to quarterback, the Ducks landed a commitment early on from a prospect they really like at tight end. With Oregon picking up two great young tight ends last class in Moliki Matavao and Terrance Ferguson, the Ducks shouldn’t need to take more than one in this cycle. Dollar is a strong addition and every indication is that he will be a Duck come signing day.

Offensive Line (5)

Percy Lewis, Michael Wooten, Cameron Williams, Dave Iuli, Kelvin Banks

Heading into July 1, Lewis was the Ducks’ lone commitment along the offensive line. But that all changed when Oregon landed commitments from Wooten and Williams after a loud day of recruiting buzz. The Williams commitment was an incredibly close battle that was unfolding until decision time, and you can find more coverage of it on our site.

Iuli is a great option for Oregon along the interior of the offensive line. Dylan Rubenking caught up with Iuli following his recent trip to Eugene, and he had no shortage of positive things to say, which you can read here.

Kelvin Banks is a huge, huge target for Oregon, both in his physical stature and his potential impact. Banks has a decision date set for July 24 and the Ducks are squarely in the mix. You can read Banks' update on his own recruitment from Max Torres here. I’m going out on a limb and choosing Oregon to overcome distance and secure a headliner from the lone star state.

Eston Harris Jr. was the final prospect I wanted to include on the offensive line, because I think he’s a likely player to end up in this class given his talent and some of the moving pieces of offensive line recruiting this cycle. However, the late shift in Williams’ recruitment and resulting commitment pushed Harris off my list for now.

I’ll have a longer story out following the commitments of Wooten and Williams which will take a deeper dive into the outlook for offensive line recruiting this cycle.

Defensive Line (3)

Gracen Halton, Sir Mells, Cyrus Moss

Halton and Mells are locked in on the interior of Oregon’s defensive line this class. Both have even gone so far as to post on social media that their recruitments are shut down to outside schools.

Cyrus Moss is the big name looming that every Ducks fan wanted to see. Right now, I feel good about Oregon’s chances for Moss. Max Torres interviewed Moss following his visit to Eugene; It was clear that the Ducks made a great impression and articulated their vision for Moss to step in after Kayvon Thibodeaux and be Oregon’s next signature pass rusher on the edge.

I think Oregon could add a fourth defensive lineman and there are a few options there, none of which I’m confident enough to predict currently. Hero Kanu, Enai White, and Gilbert Tongrongou are three potential takes that Oregon is battling for.

Linebacker (4)

Emar’rion Winston, TJ Dudley, Robby Snelling, Sebastian Cheeks

Winston was the Ducks' first commitment back in July of 2020 and he looks to fill in at outside linebacker or potentially edge rusher in Tim DeRuyter’s new defense.

I wrote recently about Oregon’s reshuffling targets at linebacker in the latest edition of Reid’s Rundown so you can read my more in-depth thoughts there. Dudley, Snelling, and Cheeks were all prospects that I mentioned and since then Dudley announced his commitment to the Ducks on Monday. Snelling visited Eugene in early June and discussed his visit in an interview with Dylan Rubenking. Cheeks also made a trip to Eugene for an official visit, which happened this past weekend.

Cornerback (3)

Jalil Tucker, Jahlil Florence, Zeke Berry

These are the same three defensive backs I included in my story on Oregon’s top ten defensive targets at the beginning of June, which you can read here. Unfortunately the Ducks weren’t able to get any of the three prospects on campus in the month of June, although they still are very strong contenders for all three.

Tucker and Florence are both teammates at Lincoln High School in San Diego, Calif. and the Ducks are hoping to turn them into a package deal at the next level as well. Florence’s recruitment has blown up a bit in the past month, whereas Tucker has maintained his elite status.

Berry is another California prospect out of Concord. He brings a physical presence and athleticism that could be utilized anywhere throughout the secondary, meaning safety or even nickel. Berry’s versatility makes him a valuable asset for the Ducks in a class with limited spots.

Overall, these three recruitments haven’t yet produced the type of fireworks in Oregon’s favor that many fans were hoping for in June. However, the Ducks have stayed in the mix and now the goal is to get them on campus and hope it seals the deal. Plus, the trio would be a boost to Oregon’s continued recruiting presence in California.

Safety (2)

Landon Hullaby, Trejon Williams

Safety was a major priority for Oregon in this class and they made quick progress by securing commitments from two blue-chip prospects in Hullaby and Williams. I expect both to be catalysts in helping to fill out this secondary and recruiting class as a whole.

I do think Oregon has a spot for a third safety if the right prospect is interested, such as Zion Branch or Keon Sabb. However right now, there’s not a third safety who I’m confident enough to predict for this spot.

That’s a grand total of 23 commitments in the 2022 class. 23 is definitely on the high end for the number of commitments Oregon will take this cycle, in fact it may be the upper limit. But I do think that the Ducks may be able to get to this number if they really want to. I see offensive line or linebacker as potential places where Oregon could shave a spot from my projected numbers and possibly use an extra spot on an additional defensive lineman or safety if available.

One final note: the prospect evaluation and rating system in this cycle has been particularly challenging given the limited opportunities for in-person evaluation over the past year. This could mean that we will see more movement in the rankings as things open up heading into the fall.

Also, it means that many programs, Oregon included, may have greater divergence between their evaluations and national rankings. Just something to keep in mind before you get upset about Oregon taking a lower-rated commit than you may have liked.