Oregon Ducks Face Escalating Flood Risk as Playoff Game Approaches

It never rains in Autzen Stadium? As the Oregon Ducks and coach Dan Lanning prepare to host their first ever College Football Playoff game, the weather is intensifying in Eugene, Oregon. Atmospheric rivers are threatening to flood in the Pacific Northwest as Ducks fans brace for heavy rainfall.

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“It never rains in Autzen Stadium” has long been one of the Oregon Ducks' favorite ironies, but Mother Nature may be testing that mantra at a critical time.

As the No. 5 Oregon Ducks and coach Dan Lanning prepare to host No. 12 James Madison in the first College Football Playoff game in Autzen Stadium in program history, the weather in Eugene, Oregon, is becoming a storyline of its own.

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Atmospheric river systems are lining up across the Pacific Northwest, bringing the threat of sustained heavy rainfall, rising rivers, and localized flooding this week. Ducks fans have turned Autzen into a true home field advantage in a loud, fast, and electric environment, but Saturday's game could turn into a true weather test.

Oregon Ducks Face Escalating Flood Risk

The forecast calls for potential flooding due to heavy rainfall from Wednesday night to Friday night. The potentially good news is that heavy pattern could stop before the game kicks off on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. PT. Currently, the forecast calls for the temperatures to drop on Saturday to a chilly 40 degrees with a 60 percent change of rain.

Notably, the forecast has gotten wetter and colder as game day nears.

Lanning sort of predicted this weather pattern and shares his unique perspective.

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"Hopefully it’s interesting weather. I don’t know, it could be fun for somebody coming in,” Lanning said of the home playoff game after Oregon's regular season finale.

The Ducks have an impressive 25-2 record in Autzen Stadium under Lanning. Oregon fans are accustomed to rain and it could actually make the stadium even louder. The roar of the Autzen crowd has proven to disrupt opposing offenses, forcing false starts, miscommunications, and hurried snaps. Oregon fans are encouraged to wear green.

Weather Impact for Oregon and James Madison

The key for Oregon will be to adapt to slick conditions and an unpredictable forecast. Rain can serve as an equalizer, which isn't great in this situation as the Ducks are still a 21.5-point favorite on FanDuel.

The Ducks showed that they can grind out gritty games in the rain this season so a rainy game would not necessarily negatively impact Oregon. However, the passing game could be limited for quarterback Dante Moore and ball security becomes paramount in the wet conditions. It adds pressure on Moore and skill-position players to avoid turnovers.

The Ducks are weather tested, as evidenced by the downpour of rain they were able to navigate at Kinnick Stadium in their win over Iowa and also overcoming sideways rain at Autzen in their win over Wisconsin.

However, the numbers clearly show that the Ducks offense thrives in dry conditions. Oregon scored 39 points in the two games (vs. Wisconsin, Iowa) with inclement weather and cruised to 84 points in their most recent wins in dry conditions (vs. USC, Minnesota.)

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning sticks his tongue out to catch the rain as the No. 6 Oregon Ducks host California Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

"I know you guys are a part of this weather everyday as well. It's actually been a clear day for us. Of course Bryce loves the rain, Bryce Boettcher. I hate the rain," Moore said after beating Minnesota 42-13.

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Moore’s arm strength shows up on the stat sheet, with 50 completions of 20 yards or more this season, including 15 throws that traveled at least 30 yards, eight of 40-plus, four of 50-plus, and two that went for 60 yards or more.

Saturday is also historic significance for JMU, as its first College Football Playoff appearance since joining the FBS in 2022. JMU coach Bob Chesney has a great underdog mentality that cannot be overlooked. While coaching at Holy Cross, Chesney pulled off FBS upsets over UConn and Buffalo.

Chesney, soon to become UCLA’s head coach, has been outstanding in steering the Dukes after Curt Cignetti moved on. JMU played great on the road in 2025, going 5-1, including a ruckus atmosphere at Louisville.

"It's going to be a great atmosphere. You know, the 10-day forecast around here never necessarily holds true, so we'll see what that looks like as we prepare ourselves. But one thing I know I can count on is our awesome fans to make this a really fun experience for our student athletes," Lanning said.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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