TCU Horned Frogs Football Preview & Projections For The 2025 Season

There's reason for optimism in Fort Worth this college football season. The TCU Horned Frogs run things back off a 9-4 campaign under a dynamic quarterback and experienced coaching staff. Sonny Dykes is out to prove that 2022 and 2024 are the norms at TCU and he has the roster to prove just that. The next step for the Horned Frogs is an elusive Big 12 Championship.

But will a rocky defense and tricky schedule hold this team back in 2025? Could we be at the beginning of a brutal even-year cycle? With the 2025 TCU football season on the horizon, let's preview your Horned Frogs and gauge what range of outcomes is possible for this team in the fall.

To count down until kickoff, tune in every week with TCU On SI for an extensive preview on every foe the Horned Frogs face this fall. See the bottom for all TCU opponent previews.

TCU Horned Frogs Offense Preview

TCU football preview — Oct 4, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass against the Houston Cougars in the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

There's a legitimate reason to be excited about the scoring unit for TCU this season. Quarterback Josh Hoover returns off a season where he threw for almost 4,000 yards as a sophomore, and, though the weapons around him are new, there's talent surrounding Hoover. Focus this offseason fell on other Big 12 signal callers like Rocco Becht (Iowa State) and Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), but Hoover is very much in the driver's seat for the conference's best. Heisman aspirations are a bit ambitious, though not impossible.

TCU turns over almost everyone who caught a pass last year, including safety valves like Jack Bech. The biggest addition to the receiving room is Idaho transfer Jordan Dwyer, who hauled in almost 1,200 receiving yards, earning him All-Big Sky honors in 2024. Houston receiver Joseph Manjack could also be a significant contributor. Eric McAlister (762 yards, 5 TD) and Jordyn Bailey (155 yards in two years) are the lone returning producers out wide.

UTSA transfer Kevorian Barnes looks to inject some pop into a rushing attack that was largely absent last year (as well as moot with TCU throwing the ball with the 15th-highest frequency in the FBS). Perhaps another receiver will find a niche in the running back room like Savion Williams did last season.

The offensive line returns 93 career starts, and two full-time starters are back: center Coltin Deery and guard Carson Bruno. Left tackle Ryan Hughes could be the best of the bunch after being redshirted to preserve eligibility last year. Hughes stands 6-foot-6 and clocks in at 310 pounds and shows serious promise.

TCU Horned Frogs Defense Preview

In Year One under DC Andy Avalos, TCU's defense faltered early but improved late. Installing a defense takes more time than an offense, and Year Two is typically when that phase really improves. The rollercoaster began right out of the gate when TCU was unable to slow down Stanford's Ashton Daniels and bottomed out three games later when it surrendered 66 points to rival SMU. The week before, it imploded down the stretch for a wild 35-34 loss to UCF.

Five of TCU's top seven tacklers return, headlined by linebacker Namdi Obiazor (81 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 INT). Devean Deal took over the APEX duties for Obiazor, who slid to insider backer in 2024, and immediately made an impact with a team-best 5.5 sacks; he returns for a senior season. Safeties Bud Clark and Jamel Johnson anchor what could be the Big 12's best secondary.

Corner Avery Helm took a medical redshirt last year but returns to full service in 2025. Washington State transfer Ansel Din-Mbuh was a nine-game starter for the Cougars and appears ready to be a Day 1 contributor at defensive tackle.

Avalos' defense did a good job limiting explosive plays, but TCU couldn't generate much of a pass rush, and teams were able to move the ball with relative ease via chunk plays. The Frogs failed to get off the field on third downs, and that resulted in teams scoring at least 30 points five times.

Best Case Scenario For TCU

No team that won nine games last year received less attention than TCU. The 5-7 implosion in 2023 successfully wiped the Frogs off the national radar – something that could work to their benefit. A few weeks before the season, and TCU still lurks in the shadows for the most part. Heavy are the shoulders that bear expectation, and, well, TCU just doesn't have a lot of national expectation. (Contrary to Baylor, a popular darkhorse pick.)

Hoover should again lead TCU to a top-scoring offense – not just in the Big 12, but nationally. And though the defense was shaky–especially against the Big 12's better offenses–Dykes didn't feel the need to load up with transfers on that side of the ball. That's a terrific sign for the talent the coaching staff feels they have on defense, and Avalos' system should take more root this season. I expect a good step forward for 2025.

Surveying this season gives TCU three reasons for serious optimism:

A top-scoring offense returns its top-tier QB and play caller
An experienced defense should improve in Year Two in the system
TCU ended on a 6-1 run to close a 9-4 season

The ceiling for 10 wins and a Big 12 Championship berth is there. It didn't take a lot of luck for the Frogs to finish 8-4 before the bowl game (actually, the opposite – two losses were by one and three points). TCU has among the highest ceilings in the conference.

Worst Case Scenario For TCU

I've avoided talking about one major aspect until now: TCU's schedule is brutal. You can view the whole thing in succession below, but there are just no breaks built in. Despite the hype around North Carolina and TCU's standalone game in Chapel Hill on Labor Day, that's not part of the stretch of brutal games I'm counting. You can read my thoughts on UNC football here.

Starting in Week 3, TCU plays seven consecutive games without a bye – six against Power Conference opponents and five against the Big 12. Aside from Abilene Christian–far from an FCS pushover, but one that does completely restart offensively–the Frogs play 11 Power Conference opponents. They're one of just two teams to do so, the other being Baylor.

TCU catches four of the top six Big 12 teams (besides themselves) with Arizona State and Kansas State coming on the road. ASU is one of two 2024 College Football Playoff teams TCU plays this year, the other being SMU, both with astonishing continuity. The Baylor rivalry plays out between road games at K-State and West Virginia (a team TCU has a poor track record against, despite them starting completely over), and the Bears come off a bye.

There's little else to discuss in what could be a flop than the schedule itself. If the defense doesn't come together, run-heavy teams like SMU, Kansas State, and West Virginia could find serious success. I don't even necessarily agree that TCU's own run game has to improve–it didn't really impede this offense last year–but the run defense must. Given the schedule, there's a realistic path to 6-6.

TCU Horned Frogs 2025 Schedule

Date	Opponent
Sept. 1 (MON)	at North Carolina
Sept. 6	BYE
Sept. 13	Abilene Christian (FCS)
Sept. 20	SMU
Sept. 26 (FRI)	at Arizona State
Oct. 4	Colorado
Oct. 11	at Kansas State
Oct. 18	Baylor
Oct. 25	at West Virginia
Nov. 1	BYE
Nov. 8	Iowa State
Nov. 15	at BYU
Nov. 22	at Houston
Nov. 29	Cincinnati

TCU Opponent Previews*

Week 1 - North Carolina
Week 4 - SMU
Week 5 - Arizona State
Week 6 - Colorado
Week 7 - Kansas State
Week 8 - Baylor
Week 9 - West Virginia
Week 11 - Iowa State
Week 12 - BYU
Week 13 - Houston
Week 14 - Cincinnati

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