Texas Tech poised to win the Big 12, simulations predict

Texas Tech is emerging as a favorite in the 2025 Big 12 football race, with simulations pointing towards a potential championship run.
A general view of Texas Tech Red Raiders helmets. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images
A general view of Texas Tech Red Raiders helmets. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Fox College Football conducted 50 simulations of EA Sports College Football 26, and in those simulations, Texas Tech emerged as the Big 12 champion 28 times. While this is a promising indicator, I believe the Red Raiders have even better odds than a 28 out of 50 chance. Here’s why Texas Tech is positioned to dominate the Big 12 this fall.

First, quarterback Behren Morton is a rising star, poised to lead his team this fall. He is joined by dynamic playmakers like Reggie Virgil and Caleb Douglas, who have the ability to stretch defenses and make big plays. This explosive offense provides Texas Tech with the firepower to outscore any opponent in the conference.

The Texas Tech defense has been significantly bolstered by new talent acquired through the transfer portal. Players like David Bailey and Lee Hunter bring valuable attributes such as size, speed, and toughness. These additions enhance a defensive unit that is poised to effectively shut down opposing offenses and dominate games. This makes Texas Tech a well-rounded team capable of playing complementary football.

Head coach Joey McGuire is the X-factor in the team's success. His energy and determination have transformed the culture at Texas Tech, preparing these boys to win. McGuire's leadership inspires the team to fight for every yard, fostering a winning mentality that permeates the entire squad. His vision has instilled a belief in the Red Raiders, turning them into a program that believes in itself.

The simulations may have given Texas Tech 28 wins, but one could argue they are underestimating the Red Raiders. With Morton at the helm of the offense, a strengthened defense, and McGuire's unwavering determination, Texas Tech has all the components necessary to secure the program's first Big 12 title this season.

Joey McGuire
Head coach Joey McGuire. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

More Texas Tech News

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Former Texas Tech RB Tahj Brooks is making his mark with the Cincinnati Bengals

Texas Tech's David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez named to 2025 Lombardi Award watch list

CBS Sports puts Texas Tech in preseason Top 25—too high or just right?

Texas Tech's David Bailey and Lee Hunter land on PFF's Preseason All-Big 12 Defense


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David Lewis
DAVID LEWIS

Dave Lewis served in the United States Army for 25 years. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Business Administration and is completing his MBA in Executive Leadership. He’s been married to his wife, Andrea, for 20+ years and is a proud father of Carsen and Madisen.