Five Things That Will Decide Texas vs. Missouri

Texas has proven it can beat some of the nation's best.

It’s also proven to be rather prone to the trap game.

Against Missouri, the Longhorns will once again enter as the favorites, but that certainly doesn’t mean their matchup should be taken for granted. Both teams enter at 6-2 with identical 3-2 SEC records, and both have top-tier defenses.

Here are five things that could decide the matchup.

Containing Missouri’s Rushing Attack

Oct 10, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers running back Jamal Roberts runs the ball as Texas A&M Aggies safety Marcus Ratcliffe makes the tackle during the second half of the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While much of the attention has been on Ahmad Hardy these past few weeks — and for good reason — Missouri's offense runs through Jamal Roberts, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,005 yards through eight games.

Roberts has been especially difficult to bring down, consistently turning what should be modest gains into extra yards after contact. He currently leads the nation in yards after contact with 844. For a Texas defense allowing just 102.4 rushing yards per game, tackling will be every bit as important as winning at the line of scrimmage.

The blueprint is there. Ole Miss held Roberts to just 39 yards on 20 carries in a 31-3 victory over the Tigers. Texas will need a similar effort to keep Missouri from controlling the tempo.

Getting the Tigers Behind the Chains

Stopping Roberts isn't only about limiting his total yardage. It's about putting Missouri in situations where running the football is no longer the obvious choice.

That means tackles for loss, pressure and disrupted plays on early downs. Texas recorded seven sacks and nine tackles for loss against Mississippi State, with Rasheem Biles accounting for three sacks and four tackles for loss himself.

But Missouri ranks second in the SEC with just eight sacks surrendered all season, so getting into the backfield won't be easy. With Colin Simmons' availability still uncertain, Texas may need another collective effort to force the Tigers behind the chains.

Can the Longhorns Establish Their Own Running Attack?

Oct 31, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns running back Raleek Brown runs for yards during the first half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The matchup isn’t any more forgiving on the other side of the ball.

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Missouri is a team that can run the ball down opponents' throats just as well as it can snuff out attempts to return the favor. The Tigers allow just 98.3 yards per game, while the Longhorns are coming off an abysmal 60-yard rushing performance against Mississippi State.

With Hollywood Smothers already ruled out for the season and the offensive line in limbo ever since Trevor Goosby’s injury, Raleek Brown will have quite the heavy burden on his shoulders.

Will Texas Have the Weapons to Win Through the Air?

If the Longhorns can’t run consistently, Missouri's secondary presents an interesting opportunity.

The Tigers rank in the bottom six of the SEC in passing yards allowed per game with 226.9. It’s a far less imposing figure than their run-defense numbers, but exploiting that weakness may depend on who's available.

Cam Coleman remains questionable, while Ryan Wingo has been upgraded to probable. Even if both were to be cleared to play, that’s no guarantee they’d be at 100% or even play all four quarters. In fact, we’ve already seen Coleman have to leave a couple of games early this season.

Their potential absence would put greater pressure on players such as Emmett Mosley V and Jermaine Bishop.

So while the openings may be there, the question is whether Texas can take advantage of them.

Winning the Turnover Battle

Oct 31, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning throws a touchdown pass during the first half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There may not be a more telling statistical difference between these teams.

Missouri enters Saturday with a plus-eight turnover margin. Texas sits at minus-three.

The Tigers have protected the football, with quarterback Austin Simmons throwing just two interceptions. Manning, meanwhile, has thrown seven.

In a game where sustained drives could be difficult to come by, one giveaway might provide the difference between a punt and a short-field touchdown.

Texas has the defense to win in Columbia. Whether it can avoid making that defense do everything may determine the outcome.

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