UCF at USF: War on I-4 Final Score Predictions
The final War on I-4 game for the foreseeable future happens on Saturday, as the UCF Knights are heading to Tampa to play in Raymond James Stadium against the USF Bulls.
Because of accepting a position in the Big 12, UCF does not have USF on the schedule. That makes this game all the more important as bragging rights are on the line for years to come. Here’s what the Inside The Knights staff believes will happen between the Knights and Bulls.
Andrew Johnson - Staff Writer
After suffering a gut-wrenching loss at home to the Navy Midshipman, No. 22 ranked UCF still has a chance to defeat its rival in USF and likely secure a spot in the AAC championship on Saturday. With the Knights moving on to the Big 12 Conference next season, this could be the last time the two meet since playing the last 10 consecutive years.
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UCF enters the matchup with question marks surrounding the quarterback position as both John Rhys Plumlee and Mikey Keene had chances to pull away from Navy. The Knights struggled to convert on third down and put the defense on the field more than needed.
That shouldn’t be a problem against a USF defense allowing 40.73 points per game. I think Plumlee will be fully healthy this week and get the start to finish the regular season. Look for UCF to pound the rock as the Bulls gave up nearly 300 rushing yards to Tulsa last week. The Knights' rushing attack is among the best in the nation, averaging 234.5 rushing yards per game to rank seventh in the nation and lead the American Athletic Conference.
No matter the stats or rankings, rivalry games can be interesting. For instance, UCF won a 17-13 defensive battle at home last year against USF, before defeating the Florida Gators in the Gasparilla Bowl. Still, USF has a decent ground game behind running back Brian Battie, who is second in the conference in rushing yards.
This will be the 14th matchup in program history between two teams less than 100 miles apart with UCF leading the series 7-6, so expect both fan bases to create an intense atmosphere to end the season.
UCF 41 USF 20
Guilherme Leal - Staff Writer
The new College Football Playoff rankings are here, and surprisingly, UCF is No. 22. This is not only a great morale booster, but the Knights probably “only” need a win versus USF to make it to the AAC Championship Game.
Combining the loss last week and the possibility of this being the last War on I-4 for some time, I believe UCF will have all the motivation necessary to defeat the Bulls. The Knights have a lot more at stake than their Florida rival, so I expect the Black & Gold to be better than they were in the Navy matchup.
It will be interesting to see if Mikey Keene remains in the lineup. If so, I think UCF’s passing game should be better as a whole, but the offensive line needs to step up. The game against the Midshipmen showed that there is a lot of work to be done. The offense needs to capitalize its trips to the red zone as UCF won't survive against tougher teams if it only settles for field goals. Should Gus Malzahn fix the offensive issues, I see the Knights going to the conference title game versus Cincinnati/Tulane and taking home the War on I-4 trophy to Orlando one last time.
UCF 31 USF 17
Jack Edwards - Staff Writer
UCF is once again a massive favorite against USF, and a big reason for that is the fact that USF has not beaten an FBS team this season. However, USF has matched up well with some decent-to-good teams (Florida, Cincinnati, Tulsa) throughout the season, even though they came on the losing end.
Despite the record, this is not a team that is going to shrivel up and quit in what could be the final matchup of the War on I-4 rivalry for quite a while. Bulls’ interim head coach Daniel da Prato put it best when he said “we have a chance to win a trophy,” referring to the War on I-4 trophy.
UCF also has something to play for too though, and now they will come into this game angry after succumbing to Navy. Since the College Football Playoff rankings practically gave UCF a mulligan after losing that Navy game, the Knights now have their sights set on the conference title as well as a Cotton Bowl bid—and beating USF is paramount to achieving those goals.
The Knights should run away with this one, as the defense should be able to contain USF despite their recent offensive success. No matter who starts at quarterback for UCF, the Knights will score over 40 points and pile up over 200 rushing yards against a USF defense that is 128th at defending the run.
UCF 42 USF 20
Brian Smith - Publisher
UCF is going to come out playing at a fast pace and run the football right down USF's throat. From the outset, the Knights will be banging out four, five, and even 10 and 12-yard runs.
Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee will hit a couple of passes on the opening drive to Javon Baker, and Isaiah Bowser will finish off the drive in the Wildcat for a one-yard score. That first drive for the Knights will be a harbinger of how this game will continue throughout, as UCF ends up with 260 yards rushing by the end of the fourth quarter. The defense will also cause USF issues.
USF's freshman quarterback, Byrum Brown, will see a variety of blitzes and coverages, causing him to be sacked three times and miss some critical throws. Those big defensive plays will help build an early lead, as the Bulls struggle out of the gate to keep up with the Knights.
By halftime, it will be clear that UCF's talent, especially its offensive skill position speed, are too much for the Bulls. A two-touchdown lead going into the third quarter allows the Knights to play even more power football during the second half, eating up the clock and grinding out drives. Mixed in will be some key deep passes.
Look for wide receivers Kobe Hudson, Ryan O'Keefe and Baker to have receptions of over 20 yards on the day. Those big passing plays are the final nail in the coffin for USF, and UCF wins in convincing fashion.
UCF 45 USF 21
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