Why Fans Should Lower Expectations for UCLA Next Season

UCLA has had an amazing turnaround since Bob Chesney was hired as head coach, as seen through both the transfer portal and the recruiting trail.

However, while everything looks nice on paper, there is still a good chance UCLA will not be able to meet every expectation immediately. Because of that, it might be time to pull back expectations slightly and set more grounded goals for the season. Hear both arguments below.

Roster Turnover Could Be a Concern

Florida wide receiver Aidan Mizell (11) makes yards against Florida State during the second half of an NCAA football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 29, Florida beat Florida State 40-21.2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first major concern when evaluating this 2026 UCLA team is the roster turnover. The Bruins brought in 61 new players this offseason through the transfer portal and recruiting cycle. Because of this, UCLA is essentially starting from scratch next season.

Even though UCLA looks good on paper, this issue cannot be ignored. Chesney and his staff are now tasked with preparing a completely new roster that is expected to compete with elite Big Ten Conference programs. That is a very difficult challenge when you realize UCLA only has the summer to prepare.

The good news for UCLA is that many of these transfers are coming from James Madison. That familiarity should help establish a foundation and allow UCLA to steal a few games throughout the season. But expecting complete dominance right away should probably be off the table.

The Big Ten Is a Different Challenge

The next concern surrounding UCLA’s hype next season is the level of competition they will face. Chesney, despite his success, has never coached at a Power Four school, much less in one of the toughest conferences in college football, the Big Ten.

Even though Chesney led James Madison to the College Football Playoff last season, the Dukes were blown out by Oregon 51-34 in the first round. While James Madison looked competitive at times, it was clear there was still a major talent gap.

It is also important to remember that many of the players from that James Madison roster are now wearing blue and gold. In a way, UCLA is relying heavily on players who struggled against elite competition, which is a fair concern when projecting next season.

Because of this, it is reasonable to expect some regression from the James Madison transfers. The jump from the Sun Belt Conference to the Big Ten is massive, and assuming every player will transition seamlessly is unrealistic.

Rebutting Negativity

That said, there are also arguments working in UCLA’s favor. One of the biggest examples is Curt Cignetti’s success at Indiana. He was able to transform Indiana into a contender in a very short amount of time. Believing Chesney can follow a similar blueprint is not unreasonable.

Replicating exactly what Cignetti accomplished will be difficult, but the path has already been laid out. When looking at the similarities between Indiana’s rebuild and UCLA’s current direction, there are definitely comparisons to be made.

May 2, 2026; Pasadena, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava (9) during the spring game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

It is also important to revisit the positives from James Madison’s playoff matchup against Oregon. In the second half of that game, James Madison actually outscored Oregon 28-17. While the final result was still decisive, Chesney's Dukes showed they could compete with elite talent in stretches.

Another major takeaway was the performance of Wayne Knight. He carried the ball 17 times for 110 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Considering he will now be playing at UCLA, it is not unrealistic to believe he can still produce against top-level Big Ten competition.

But even when taking all of these positives into account, there are still too many “ifs” surrounding UCLA to expect immediate elite success. Right now, UCLA should absolutely be capable of reaching and winning a bowl game, but expecting much more than that could be asking too much too soon.

Even so, UCLA has positioned itself to become an elite program — just not immediately. Right now, the Bruins rank No. 4 nationally in the 2027 recruiting cycle, per 247Sports. If there is one thing to take away from that, it is that UCLA may only be a few years away from truly becoming one of college football’s top programs.

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