UNC Schedule Prediction: October Slate

Predicting UNC's record at the end of October.

The North Carolina Tar Heels football team is beginning its first season under head coach Bill Belichick, who brought in a crowd of new faces to join the Tar Heels. | Rodd Baxley/The Fayetteville Observer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When the month of October kicks off, North Carolina will begin conference play and it won't be easy.

The slate gets started when ACC title favorites Clemson come to Chapel Hill. On top of that, two of the four games in the month of October will be on the road with a trip to the West Coast to take on Cal and a trip to the JMA Wireless Dome to take on Syracuse. The most winnable game is a home game against Virginia in the 130th meeting between the two historic universities in the "South's Oldest Rivalry," but that's not a guaranteed victory

Here's a look at the first ACC four games in the October slate and my predictions for all four.

*Based off my September predictions, UNC is 3-1

Clemson, Oct. 4

Clemson football Head Coach Dabo Swinney smiles with students and university staff before a Good Morning America’s 50 States in 50 Days show in Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Thursday, August 21, 2025. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Tigers are the odds-on favorites to win the ACC and are legit national title contenders for the first time in a few years. The odds aren’t in North Carolina’s favor to earn an upset win over Clemson. The Tar Heels have not beaten Clemson since 2010 and are 1-9 in their last 10 meetings with the Tigers. In the last two meetings between the traditional ACC programs, it resulted in double-digit defeats for UNC - 31-20 in 2023 and a 39-10 loss in 2022.

Clemson returns most of its production from the season, including a potential Heisman candidate Cade Klubnik. Klubnik massively improved last season as he completed 63.3% of his passes for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He also ran for 463 yards and seven touchdowns.

Nevertheless, an upset win over Clemson not only puts UNC in a great position to contend for an ACC title. However, I don’t think it will happen but the game will be close.

Result: Loss (3-2)

@ Cal, Oct. 16

Nov 23, 2024; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears head coach Justin Wilcox (center) during the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at California Memorial Stadium. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Despite making a bowl game in each of the past two seasons, Cal has endured five consecutive losing seasons. To make matters worse, the ACC media predicted that the Golden Bears would finish 15th while the USA Today preseason poll projected the Golden Bears to finish 16th out of 17 ACC teams. Still, this is a classic trap game — and the reason is travel.

The distance from Chapel Hill to Berkeley, California, is more than 2,800 miles. While the game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. local time, it will feel like a 10:30 p.m. start for North Carolina. How head coach Bill Belichick prepares his team for the time shift will be worth watching. I have the Heels winning a close game.

Result: Win (4-2)

Virginia, Oct. 25

Jul 22, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virgnia quarterback Chandler Morris answers questions from the media during ACC Media Days at Hilton Charlotte Uptown. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Virginia improved to 5-7 last year but they need to take another jump to become bowl-eligible. That effort centers on quarterback Chandler Morris, a transfer from North Texas who threw for 3,774 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2024. Morris, who has also played at Oklahoma and TCU, brings Power Four experience and also stability to an offense that ranked 93rd in total yards and 107th in scoring last season.

The supporting cast includes running backs Xavier Brown, who returns after rushing for 488 yards and a touchdown last season, and North Carolina Central transfer J’Mari Taylor, who rushed for over 1,100 yards and 15 scores in 2024. The offensive line remains a concern after struggling last season and losing Louisville transfer Monroe Mills to injury.

Defensively, the Cavaliers boasts a strong front seven led by transfers Fisher Camac (UNLV) and Cazeem Moore (Elon), plus returning standouts Anthony Briton, Jahmeer Carter, Kam Robinson, and James Jackson. However, the secondary is thin after allowing 263.1 passing yards per game – which was 120th nationally in 2024 – returning only one starter, Jam Jackson, whose health is in question.

Virginia should improve offensively but its defense, especially through the air, is still suspect. North Carolina wins the 130th meeting between the two schools and inch closer and closer to bowl eligibility.

Result: Win (5-2)

@ Syracuse, Oct. 31

Dec 27, 2024; San Diego, CA, USA; Syracuse Orange head coach Fran Brown congratulates his players after a scoring drive against the Washington State Cougars during the second half at Snapdragon Stadium. | Abe Arredondo-Imagn Images

Syracuse is coming off a 10-3 season, but the Orange are expected to take a step back after the departures of quarterback Kyle McCord, running back LeQuint Allen and three of their top four receivers from the nation’s No. 1 passing offense. Wide receiver Trebor Pena was slated to return but transferred to Penn State.

Regardless, the Tar Heels have to travel to Syracuse and that’s never an easy road trip. The JMA Wireless Dome (formerly the Carrier Dome) is considered to be one of the best homefield advantages in college football. Over the past three seasons, the Orange are 16-4 at home, including wins over No. 15 NC State in 2022 along with No. 23 Georgia Tech and No. 6 Miami in 2024 — the latter of which ultimately spoiled the Hurricanes’ playoff hopes.

Result: Loss (5-3)

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