UNC Confidence Meter Heading Into Week 5 Matchup

Last week's bye may have come at the perfect time for the North Carolina Tar Heels after a disappointing Week 3 loss to the Clemson Tigers.

It also gave the coaching staff and players extra time to prepare for Saturday's contest against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Coughing up the game against Clemson could be problematic, as the Tar Heels' chances of winning this game are extremely low. So, the Tar Heels could enter Week 6 on a two-game losing streak. That said, here are my confidence levels in multiple areas of this matchup from North Carolina's perspective.

Coaching: 3/10

Sep 19, 2026; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; University of North Carolina Tar Heels Head Coach Bill Belichick looks on the field early in the first quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ashley Tumlin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As noted, the Tar Heels are facing an uphill battle on multiple fronts against Notre Dame. That includes coaching, with Bill Belichick and Marcus Freeman squaring off. It goes without saying that Belichick's legendary NFL resume speaks for itself, but that feels like light-years ago. The 74-year-old head coach was underwhelming toward the end of his tenure with the New England Patriots and has been underwhelming in his brief time in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina is 6-9 under Belichick since he took over as head coach in 2025. Meanwhile, Freeman is 47-12 since taking over as Notre Dame's head coach in 2021. Having offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino provides confidence for the Tar Heels' coaching staff. However, his presence still doesn't move the needle enough to feel remotely assured that these coaching staffs are anywhere close.

Offense: 5/10

Sep 19, 2026; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; University of North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (9) passes the ball late in the fourth quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ashley Tumlin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Through the first three games, the Tar Heels' offense has shown glimpses of potential, but the consistency leaves much to be desired, starting at quarterback. Billy Edwards Jr. has been uninspiring over this span, throwing for 611 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while completing 56.4 percent of his passes.

That is extremely problematic against a defense that allows 8.3 points per game, the second-fewest in the country. If Edwards Jr. struggled against TCU and Clemson, imagine how much he could be exposed on Saturday. Due to Edwards Jr.'s shortcomings, the pressure on the running backs rises exponentially. If that part of the offense stalls, it will be virtually impossible for the Tar Heels to move the ball.

Defense: 7/10

Aug 29, 2026; Dublin, Co. Dublin, IRL; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive lineman Xavier Lewis (90) against the TCU Horned Frogs in the second half at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Laszlo Geczo-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Even with Melkart Abou Jaoude out of the lineup, North Carolina's defense has been impressive. I'm not going to fault the defense for the loss against Clemson, even though Clemson scored 28 points. This unit was on the field constantly, and eventually the dam broke.

Unfortunately, Notre Dame's offense is on a whole other level, with quarterback CJ Carr, who has thrown for 963 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception while completing 70.5 percent of his passes. Despite losing Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the NFL, the Fighting Irish's backfield hasn't skipped a beat.

Aneyas Williams has recorded 224 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 52 attempts, while Nolan James Jr. has 197 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 46 attempts. Pairing that rushing attack with Carr leading the offense provides a daunting task for Belichick's defense.

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