USC Fans Will Love Latest NCAA Tournament Prediction

Despite a blowout loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini, the USC Trojans remain on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament.

Jan 14, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts in the first half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Posting an 18-8 overall record and standing at 7-8 in Big Ten play, the USC Trojans are one of several teams on the bubble looking to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume as March quickly approaches.

Earning a spot in the tournament is a goal the Trojans set out to accomplish entering their second season under coach Eric Musselman, and their results in the final five games of the regular season will determine if USC makes it to March Madness for the first time in three years. 

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman looks on from the bench during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The Trojans have lost two straight games, including an overwhelming home loss to the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini, 101-65. USC missed out on a golden opportunity to earn a signature win at home; however, with five games remaining in the regular season, there are still opportunities ahead for the Trojans.

USC Trojans' Current NCAA Tournament Projection

USC's head coach Eric Musselman calls out to referees during the first half against Michigan State on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology projections, the Trojans, ahead of their home matchup at the Galen Center against the Fighting Illini, were projected to be the No. 11 seed in the West Region of the tournament.

Lunardi has the Trojans playing the No. 6-seeded Kentucky Wildcats in the first round of the tournament in Oklahoma City. The winner of the projected Kentucky-USC matchup will match up against either the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders or the No. 14 seed North Dakota State Bison. 

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Other top seeds in the West Region with USC include the Arizona Wildcats (No. 1), Purdue Boilermakers (No. 2), and Michigan State Spartans (No. 4). USC, facing off against Kentucky in the first round, would be an exciting matchup for Trojan fans. 

Feb 17, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Mouhamed Dioubate (23) celebrates after getting fouled during the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

In their second season under coach Mark Pope, the Wildcats currently post a 17-9 overall record and are 8-5 in the SEC following an 86-78 home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. Kentucky, despite its talent, has shown inconsistency throughout the season, and the Trojans are more than capable of knocking them off if they play in the first round. 

How USC Can Improve NCAA Tournament Chances

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Kam Woods (13) drives the ball to the basket on a break away during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

With five games remaining in the regular season and the Big Ten tournament ahead for the Trojans, USC must finish with 11 losses or fewer to remain comfortably on the bubble. Anything less than 10 losses will be enough for the Trojans to secure a spot in the tournament. 

The Trojans also can't afford another performance as they had against the Fighting Illini on Wednesday night. In the loss, USC was outplayed from the start. Illinois guard Andrej Stojakovic led the charge for the Fighting Illini, scoring 22 points, three rebounds, and one steal on 6-of-7 shooting from the field.

USC will face its arch-rival, the UCLA Bruins, twice. The Trojans also have remaining home games against the Oregon Ducks and the No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers, as well as a road matchup with the Washington Huskies.

USC looks to rebound from its brutal loss to the Fighting Illini and complete the regular-season sweep of the Oregon Ducks. The tip-off from the Galen Center between the Ducks and Trojans is scheduled for 1 p.m. PT with the game broadcast on FS1. This is a game that the Trojans can't afford to lose, as a loss to one of the bottom teams in the Big Ten would be a massive hit to USC's tournament resume late in the season.