Biggest Keys for USC's Upset Bid Against Illinois

Looking to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume, the USC Trojans will face a high-stakes matchup against the Illinois Fighting Illini on Wednesday night at the Galen Center. What are the three biggest keys for the Trojans to pull off the upset?

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman looks on from the bench during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans have made impressive strides in their second season under coach Eric Musselman. Despite key injuries to their backcourt, the Trojans are in great shape heading towards the final stretch of the regular season to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. 

Following its 89-82 road loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Trojans post a 18-7 overall record and are 7-7 in Big Ten play. Wednesday night’s home matchup against the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini presents the perfect opportunity for the Trojans to boost their tournament resume with a win over one of the Big Ten’s best. 

Jan 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Illinois is considered by many to be a top Final Four contender in the Big Ten this season, as they post a 21-5 overall record and are 12-3 in conference play. Beating the Fighting Illini will be a difficult task for the Trojans. Here are three keys for USC and a prediction for Wednesday night’s matchup.

Starting Fast 

Feb 11, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; USC Trojans forward Ezra Ausar (2) goes to the basket as Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) defends during the first half at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

When facing a talented team like Illinois, the one thing that the Trojans can’t afford is to start slow. Starting fast will help the Trojans keep pace with Illinois and put pressure on the Fighting Illini early on. 

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To start the season, the Trojans have struggled with turnovers, as in several matchups, USC has turned the ball over multiple times in the opening minutes of the first half. When going up against a top Big Ten team in Illinois, that is something the Trojans can’t afford to let happen, as the Fighting Illini, with their talent, will capitalize on turnovers.

Defending Keaton Wagler 

Jan 24, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) looks at his teammate during the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

The Trojans are set to face one of the best guards in the Big Ten on Wednesday, Illinois’ Keaton Wagler. The freshman guard has had a remarkable impact for the Fighting Illini this season, leading Illinois in scoring, averaging 18.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. 

Wagler put on arguably the best individual performance by a player this college basketball season, scoring 46 points and four assists, including knocking down nine three pointers in the Fighting Illini’s 88-82 road win over the No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers on Jan. 24. 

To pull off the upset, the Trojans must lock down Wagler on defense and make him uncomfortable. Wagler has scored in double figures in every game but three this season, which featured losses to the No. 5 UConn Huskies and the No. 25 Alabama Crimson Tide.   

Performance of USC’s Guards

Jan 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) enters the court before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Going up against a talented Illinois backcourt, the performance of USC’s guards, especially Alijah Arenas and Kam Woods, is a major key for the Trojans to pull off the upset over the Fighting Illini. Arenas has been on a tear for the Trojans recently, scoring 20-plus points in three consecutive games. 

In the Trojans recent loss to Ohio State, Arenas scored 25 points, four rebounds, and three assists on 6-of-19 shooting from the field. Entering a high-stakes matchup against the Fighting Illini, Arenas looks to continue his impressive scoring trend. 

USC guard Kam Woods has also had a major role in the Trojans backcourt. Since his breakout 33-point performance in USC’s 73-72 road loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes on Jan. 28, Woods has scored in double figures in all but one game since that matchup. 

USC is hoping to get back star guard and leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara for the matchup against Illinois. Baker-Mazara, who has been out the last two games for the Trojans with a knee sprain, leads the team in scoring, averaging 18.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game.

USC vs. Illinois Prediction

USC Trojans head coach Eric Musselman watches during the second half of the NCAA men's basketball game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the Schottenstein Center on Feb. 11, 2026. Ohio State won 89-82. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the Trojans on the tournament bubble, expect Musselman’s squad to come out of the gates strong and bring their best fight to Illinois. The Fighting Illini’s one Big Ten road loss came in overtime on Feb. 7, losing 85-82 to the No. 15 Michigan State Spartans in a hostile Breslin Center environment. 

Despite the Trojans putting up a spirited effort, the Fighting Illini’s talent will overwhelm USC throughout the game, as Illinois makes key plays down the stretch to gut out another Big Ten road victory. 

Final Score: Illinois 85, USC 76

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