USC Trojans Updated NCAA Tournament Projection Entering Final Stretch

Entering the final stretch, the USC Trojans look to finish strong to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. With six regular-season games remaining and the Big Ten tournament, what are USC's chances?

Dec 21, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts in the second half against the UC Santa Cruz at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Heading into the final six games of the regular season, the USC Trojans post an 18-7 overall record and are 7-7 in Big Ten conference play. While the Trojans have taken a major step forward in their second season under coach Eric Musselman, USC still has one goal in mind: make the NCAA Tournament. 

The Trojans saw their three-game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday, as they fell to another tournament hopeful from the Big Ten, the Ohio State Buckeyes, falling 89-82 on the road. 

Feb 8, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman looks on from the bench during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

With the loss, the Trojans' tournament chances took a major hit. Ahead of their high-stakes home matchup against the No. 8 Illinois Fighting Illini at the Galen Center, here’s a look at where the Trojans stand on the tournament bubble. 

USC Trojans' Current NCAA Tournament Projection

USC Trojans head coach Eric Musselman watches during the second half of the NCAA men's basketball game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the Schottenstein Center on Feb. 11, 2026. Ohio State won 89-82. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to On3’s James Fletcher III’s latest bracketology projections, the Trojans are currently projected to be one of the last four teams in the tournament field, along with the San Diego State Aztecs, the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the UCF Knights. 

In the first four, which is set to take place in Dayton, Ohio, the Trojans are projected to face San Diego State. If the Trojans were to win that game, they would advance to play the No. 6-seeded Saint Louis Billikens in the first round of the Midwest Region.

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Top seeds projected in the Midwest Region include the Michigan Wolverines (No. 1), Purdue Boilermakers (No. 2), Kansas Jayhawks (No. 3), and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (No. 4). The Wolverines are projected to be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, following Arizona's two straight losses after being undefeated.

How Can USC Secure a Spot in the NCAA Tournament

Feb 11, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; USC Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) dribbles the ball as Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) defends during the first half at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Upsetting Illinois on Wednesday at the Galen Center would provide a massive boost to the Trojans tournament resume, as the Fighting Illini are one of the top teams in the Big Ten. In addition to their home matchup against the Fighting Illini, the Trojans will also face their arch-rival, the UCLA Bruins, twice, and play a marquee matchup against the No. 7 Nebraska Cornhuskers. 

To be successful in these games, Trojans fans are hoping that USC freshman guard Alijah Arenas can maintain his recent scoring dominance. Arenas has scored 20-plus points in three straight games for the Trojans.

In the Trojans loss to Ohio State, Arenas scored 25 points, four rebounds, three assists, and three steals on 6-of-19 shooting from the field. Arenas' performances could be the difference in the Trojans either making or missing the tournament. 

Jan 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Chad Baker-Mazara (4) enters the couert before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at the Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC also hopes to get back leading scorer and guard Chad Baker-Mazara, who has been out with a knee strain for the last two games. Before his injury, Baker-Mazara was averaging 18.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game for the Trojans. 

To earn a spot in the tournament for the first time in three seasons, USC having fewer than 11 losses should be enough to make the field. Losing more than four games throughout the rest of the regular season, including one defeat in the Big Ten tournament, could see the Trojans miss the cut.  

The Trojans look to get on the right track with an upset win over the Fighting Illini on Wednesday night. The tip-off from the Galen Center between the Trojans and the Fighting Illini is scheduled for 7 p.m. PT with the game broadcast on the Big Ten Network.