What Analytics are Saying About USC’s Chances to Upset Oregon

The No. 15 USC Trojans and No. 7 Oregon Ducks meet each other at Autzen Stadium this weekend for the first time as Big Ten members. College Football Playoff hopes will be on the line for each team. What do the analytics say about who will come out on top?

Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talk before a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The No. 15 USC Trojans and No. 7 Oregon Ducks will meet at Autzen Stadium in a highly anticipated matchup with College Football Playoff hopes on the line. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 22 at 12:30 p.m. PT and will be broadcast on CBS. ESPN’s College GameDay show will be in town.

What do the advanced analytics say about this matchup between these two west coast foes?

USC vs. Oregon Preview, FPI Prediction

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives USC a 28.1 percent chance to go on the road and beat Oregon. The Trojans have the No. 4 highest FPI rating in the Big Ten at 19.0. Oregon is No. 3 with a rating of 23.8. It will be a tall task for the Trojans to pull off the road upset.

USC improved to 8-2 on the season with a come from behind 26-21 win over the Iowa Hawkeyes in their last outing. Things were not going well for the Trojans, and they entered the halftime break down 21-10. The defense clamped down in the second half, not allowing a single point and the offense did enough to preserve the win. 

Nov 15, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans running back Bryan Jackson (21) runs the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Trojans were bumped up a couple spots in the playoff rankings that were released on Tuesday night to No. 15. They now find themselves in a position where if they win out to finish 10-2, they’d be right on the bubble of making it into the playoff. 

Oregon on the other hand is 9-1 and ranked No. 7. It’s very simple for the Ducks to make the playoff; win the last two games and they will be in. However, a loss to USC or in their final game against the rival Washington Huskies could take them right out of the playoff race. 

It’s a must win game for each of these teams. 

USC vs. Oregon Betting Odds

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning as the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers on Oct. 25, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Trojans are 9.5-point underdogs on the road against the Ducks according to DraftKings Sportbook. USC has odds of+295 to win outright while the Ducks are -375.

The current over/under is at 59.5 points. 

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USC vs. Oregon Score Prediction

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane (8) celebrates after scoring against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

This is the biggest game for USC coach Lincoln Riley since the Pac-12 Championship game in 2022. USC hired Riley for games like these. This would would inch them closer to a spot in the playoff for the first time. 

Oregon is one of the most talented teams in the country and have been since Dan Lanning took over as coach in 2022, the same year Riley took over at USC. The Ducks have won big games like this under Lanning and they will aim to do it again in front of their home fans.

Oregon running back Noah Whittington runs for a touchdown as the Oregon Ducks host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Nov. 14, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

USC’s run defense has been shaky on the road this season in their losses to Illinois and Notre Dame. Oregon will zone in on that to try to control the game.

The Trojans electric passing attack with wide receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane will keep them in it for most of the game, but Oregon’s ground attack led running backs Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison will secure the win and late cover. 

Oregon 31, USC 20

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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