Biggest Question for Lincoln Riley Entering Year Five at USC

Entering year five of the Lincoln Riley era, the USC Trojans are on the hunt for their first ever College Football Playoff appearance. However, four years of failing to make the postseason has led some to question if Riley's seat is warming up in Southern California.

Riley is known as one of the most talented head coaches in the game with years of accomplishments, so no CFP in four seasons with the Trojans is rather surprising. Nonetheless, the signs, the production and the hype are all pointing to a impactful year for USC. The biggest question for Riley heading into 2026 is if the Trojans coach can continue to prove that the program is taking actual steps forward on the field, and not just on the recruiting trail.

What Season Five Looks Like for Lincoln Riley

USC Trojans Lincoln Riley College Football Playoff Big Ten Chad Bowden Contract Head Coach Caleb Williams Gary Patterson CFP — Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the TCU Horned Frogs in the first half during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC finished the 2025 season with a 9-4 record, going undefeated on the Trojans' home turf. The momentum now turns to this fall, where USC is re-tooling the roster with 30+ signees from the No. 1-ranked recruiting class and new coaching additions that are bound to make an impact.

In December the Trojans officially added defensive coordinator Gary Patterson to their coaching staff, a College Football Hall of Fame coach who brings a bright defensive mind to Riley's program. Patterson was formerly TCU's head coach for over 20 seasons and remains their winningest coach in program history with a 181-79 record.

The Trojans' freshmen class ranked No. 1 in the country and could become the group of talent that could push USC to a new standard and into the CFP. The group of 35 recruits will help USC prepare for bigger roles that need to be filled this fall, and ignite the reboot of a dominant USC program that pushes heavy California recruiting.

Hot Seat Conversation Looms

The Trojans coach has a laundry list of accomplishments in his career, from multiple Heisman Trophy and Biletnikoff Award winners, multiple No. 1 overall NFL Draft picks, four consecutive Big 12 conference championship titles and multiple CFP trips. Although, his time in Los Angeles has not nearly come close to what he did at Oklahoma.

While Riley had former USC quarterback Caleb Williams to coach in his first season at USC, his 11-3 record and Williams' Heisman Trophy award are currently Riley's peak in southern California. Riley has not brought USC back to a double-digit win season since 2023. Point being, Riley's ability to lead a talented and historic program like USC is very possible, but the time seems to be now to start seeing the results.

Riley is also one of the highest paid coaches in college football, with a reportedly 10 year, $110 million contract linked to an almost $90 million buyout. If Riley does not deliver this season, the conversation around his buyout could become serious—but the price tag alone makes any move incredibly difficult to justify.

On3's Ari Wasserman set the stage for what the last four seasons have looked like, and what should be expected in Riley's fifth season.

"We are entering year five of his tenure, and USC hired him away from Oklahoma expecting faster results. Since Riley arrived at USC, he has shifted from being regarded as an offensive genius and a quarterback magician to someone who falls short and makes excuses. That wasn’t the vision USC had when they offered him all that guaranteed money," Wasserman said.

USC's spring production has Trojan fans feeling good heading into the fall season, but the hype must turn into results come August for Riley to finally escape the lingering hot seat conversations.

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