Advanced Analytics Predict USC vs. TCU Alamo Bowl

The USC Trojans and TCU Horned Frogs will look to end their seasons' on a high note in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Kickoff for this Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup is scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 30 at 6 p.m. PT. Who do the analytics favor?

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans are taking on the TCU Horned Frogs in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. PT and will be broadcast on ESPN. USC is seeking their 10th win of the season, which would be the first time they would achieve this feat since the 2022 season, Lincoln Riley’s first as USC coach. 

What do the analytics says about this matchup?

USC vs. TCU FPI Prediction, Preview 

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives USC a 69.8 percent chance to defeat TCU. The Trojans are the fourth highest ranked team in the Big Ten with an FPI rating of 18.7. The three teams in the Big Ten ahead of them are the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Oregon Ducks. 

The Horned Frogs are the tied for being the fifth highest ranked team in the Big 12 with the Iowa State Cyclones with an FPI rating of 8.8. The four teams ahead are the Texas Tech Tech Raiders, Utah Utes, and the BYU Cougars. 

Nov 29, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes looks on during the first half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Trojans come into this game with a record of 9-3. Their last outing was a rivalry win over the UCLA Bruins. They have been led by quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has thrown for 3,431 yards and 23 touchdowns. USC will be getting a nice boost next season as Maiava re-signed to return in 2026. 

USC will be down their top two weapons from the 2025 season in wide receivers’ Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. Lemon and Lane declared for the 2026 NFL Draft and will not be suiting up for the Alamo Bowl. 

TCU finished the 2025 regular season with a record of 8-4. The Horned Frogs offense was engineered by quarterback Josh Hoover, who threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns. However, Hoover entered the portal following the conclusion of the regular season. 

MORE: What TCU Is Saying About USC’s Offense Before Alamo Bowl

MORE: USC Trojans Defensive Back Clarifies Injury Status Ahead Of Alamo Bowl

MORE: USC Trojans Breakout Candidates Following NFL Draft, Transfer Portal Departures

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USC vs. TCU Betting Odds

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates with fans after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC is a 6.5-point favorite over TCU according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Trojans have odds of -238 to win outright while the Horned Frogs are at +195. The current over/under is at 55.5 points. 

Score Prediction

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) carries the ball against the UCLA Bruins in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Despite not having Lemon or Lane, the USC offense still has an abundance of weapons that will be on the field in the Alamo Bowl. Expect a big game out of USC freshman wide recevier Tanook Hines, who had 398 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season.

The Horned Frogs offense should be able to move the ball up and down the field. This game has the makings of being a high scoring affair. The Trojans will win in a shootout and cover the spread.

USC 38, TCU 30

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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