Surprising Analytics Predict USC vs. Michigan State

The USC Trojans will have their Big Ten home opener on Saturday, Sep. 20 against the Michigan State Spartans. It will be a late 8 p.m. PT kickoff. The game will be broadcast on FOX. Both teams are 3-0 and seeking a 4-0 start.

USC vs. Michigan State FPI Prediction, Preview

USC Trojans Michigan State Spartans Predictions Betting Odds FPI Lincoln Riley Jayden Maiava Aidan Chiles Big Ten Conference — Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks with Southern California Trojans quarterback Husan Longstreet (4) in the second half against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Trojans a 95.2 percent chance to beat the visiting Spartans. It will be a very late game, kicking off at 8 p.m. PT, but USC coach Lincoln Riley doesn't seem to mind.

"I'm never too disappointed when one of those pops up," Riley said to reporters about late games following a practice. "It’s nice. It spreads out the week a little bit for us…Extra hour of sleep, then business as usual."

The Trojans got Big Ten play off to a good start last week with a 33-17 win over the Purdue Boilermakers on the road. It was an interesting game, with lightning delaying the kickoff three hours.

In their first two games of the season, USC defeated both the Missouri State Bears and Georgia Southern Eagles at home. Now, they return to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to face Michigan State.

Like USC, Michigan State is 3-0, but the Spartans have not yet faced a Big Ten opponent. Their first three games were home wins over the Western Michigan Broncos, Boston College Eagles, and Youngstown State Penguins.

The Spartans have struggled in recent years and are looking to get back to a bowl game for the first time since the 2021 season. They hired former Oregon State Beavers coach Jonathan Smith prior to the 2024 season.

USC vs. Michigan State Betting Odds

The USC Trojans are 17.5 point home favorites against Michigan State according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is currently 56.5 points.

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USC vs. Michigan State Score Prediction

USC has been humming through three games. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has played mistake free football to this point, throwing for 989 total yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

What has been especially promising about USC so far is their ground attack. Running backs’ Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders, and King Miller have all rushed for over 150 yards and multiple touchdowns each. The three have combined for 598 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

Michigan State is led by dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles. Chiles has thrown for 656 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception this season. He has also has added 123 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

The Trojans are rolling right now, but this is their biggest test yet. Michigan State will use a heavy ground attack to control the ball as long as they can to stay in the game. USC wins, but the Spartans cover the 17.5 point spread.

USC 34, Michigan State 20

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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