USC’s Most Pivotal Game Might Be an Unexpected One

When scanning USC’s 2026 schedule, the obvious headliners jump out immediately. There’s an early-season showdown with the Oregon Ducks, followed later by matchups against the reigning Big Ten champion Ohio State Buckeyes and national title winner Indiana Hoosiers. Those are the games fans circle in red ink.

But according to Brad Crawford of CBS Sports, USC’s most pivotal contest in 2026 isn’t one of those marquee showdowns. Instead, he identified the Trojans’ midseason road trip to face the Penn State Nittany Lions as the defining swing game on the schedule, a choice that may not be flashy, but carries real weight. Crawford explained his reasoning clearly and his reasoning makes uncomfortable sense.

USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley Penn State Nittany Lions coach Matt Campbell defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn Big Ten — Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

“This is the type of road game USC has often lost under Lincoln Riley since joining the Big Ten. The Trojans face four teams inside our top-20, and Penn State isn't one of them. Still, the game follows physical battles with Oregon and Washington and could become a trap heading into an open date. If USC's goal is reaching the CFP, this one has must-win written all over.”

That framing should resonate with USC fans because it taps into a pattern that has defined the Trojans’ Big Ten transition.

The Trap-Game Pattern USC Must Break

The trap-game narrative isn’t theoretical for the Trojans, it’s actually well documented. Just look back to last season’s 34-32 loss on the road to the Illinois Fighting Illini. A game that would late prove costly in the conference race. USC entered that matchup unbeaten and largely untested, having opened the year with double-digit victories against manageable competition.

The Illinois game came before high-profile contests against the Michigan Wolverines and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and while it didn’t sit directly after two physical showdowns the way Penn State will in 2026, it exposed a flaw: USC struggled in its first true hostile road environment against a ranked opponent.

Since joining the Big Ten, road consistency has been the missing piece in Lincoln Riley’s program. USC failed to win a road game outside the state in 2024, then improved in 2025 with victories at Purdue and Nebraska. However, losses at Illinois, Notre Dame, and Oregon reinforced the same issue: when the environment tightens and the margin shrinks, execution hasn’t always followed. That’s why Penn State looms large.

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A Rebuilt Penn State Looking to Make a Statement

On paper, the Nittany Lions might not appear to be USC’s toughest opponent. They are coming off a 7-6 season and underwent a coaching change after parting ways with James Franklin. The program now belongs to Matt Campbell, formerly of the Iowa State Cyclones, who quickly reshaped the roster by landing the nation’s sixth-ranked transfer portal class.

That group includes quarterback Rocco Becht and tight end Benjamin Brahmer, two players familiar with Campbell’s system. While Penn State lost standout running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, the program’s structure and defensive identity remain intact. And if the Oct. 10 meeting becomes Penn State’s annual “White Out,” the atmosphere will be anything but manageable.

The last time USC traveled to Happy Valley in 2024, the Trojans fell 33-30 in overtime after allowing tight end Tyler Warren to erupt for 17 catches, 224 yards, and a touchdown. That loss highlighted how small breakdowns can snowball in road environments, particularly when USC struggles to control tempo late. Even with forcing three turnovers in that game, the Trojans relinquished a 20-6 halftime lead and were held to a mere 220 passing yards.

Riley vs. Lynn: The Decisive Chess Match

There is also a personal layer to this matchup. Penn State’s defensive coordinator is D'Anton Lynn, USC’s former defensive coordinator who departed for his alma mater just one day before the Alamo Bowl. That sets up a compelling chess match between Lincoln Riley’s offense and a coordinator intimately familiar with its tendencies. The schematic battle will matter, but so will quarterback Jayden Maiava’s composure in a hostile setting.

Ultimately, this game represents something bigger than a midseason conference clash. USC already faces a demanding home slate and still must travel to Indiana. If the Trojans are serious about reaching the College Football Playoff, they cannot afford another Illinois-style stumble that derails momentum.

Winning in Happy Valley would not just boost USC’s resume, it would shift the narrative around Riley’s program. It would signal growth, maturity, and the ability to handle pressure away from the Coliseum. And in a season defined by slim margins and playoff expectations, that may be the difference between contention and disappointment.