USC Trojans Dealt Surprising Prediction Ahead of Michigan State Game

The USC Trojans are 3-0 and show no signs of slowing down. As they prepare for their second conference matchup against Michigan State, one college football analyst has placed the Trojans on upset watch—despite USC entering the game as the favorite.

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The hot streak for the USC Trojans has set the stage for a promising Big Ten season, especially after a road win at Purdue with rainy conditions and a three-hour delay.

The Trojans also earned a spot in the AP Poll after the win, sneaking in at No. 25 for their first ranking since week 6 of last season. Now, back at home in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, the Trojans host Michigan State for their conference home opener, with USC opening up as a 15.5 point favorite per ESPN Bet. 

While this seems doable for the Trojans, college football analysts disagree, noting that USC is possibly on an upset watch. 

Josh Pate Weighs In On Possible USC Upset

Michigan State's Aidan Chiles celebrates his rushing touchdown against Boston College during the second overtime on Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

College football analyst Josh Pate noted his upset watch for week 4 on an episide of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, noting several matchups with upset potential.

In week 4, Pate labeled the USC vs Michigan State matchup on upset watch, despite the Trojans being the favorite. 

Pate’s analysis stems from USC’s zero turnovers through three games, and two good quarterbacks going head-to-head. 

“USC has been pretty fortuitous in the turnover battle so far this year, but that is a very randomized stat,” Pate said on an episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. “So, some extended drives for Michigan State, Aiden Chiles just making some plays, he's trading shots with Jayden Maiava and then a turnover here, and there goes Michigan State. It's a four quarter game.”

Although both teams are undefeated entering week 4, the Trojans’ recent performance and depth at key positions put them in a clear spot to earn their second conference win. 

USC Has The Keys To Win

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Ja'Kobi Lane (8) warms up on the field before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

While USC quarterback Jayden Maiava and Michigan State's Aidan Chiles are fairly even on paper, Maiava with 989 passing yards on 48 of 70 passing and six touchdowns, and Chiles with 656 yards on 58 of 81 passing and six scores, the Trojans hold the edge in total offensive production.

The Trojans top all of FBS for most offensive yards this season. USC has put up 1,812 yards and 604 yards per game. The Spartans trail with 1,160 total yards and 386 yards per game.

USC also has depth at every position, especially quarterback, the defensive line, and running back and wide receiver. 

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For the wide receiver trio of Makai Lemon, Tanook Hines and Ja’Kobi Lane, they combine for 605 receiving yards and three touchdowns and should have no problem giving the Spartans secondary some difficulty. 

The new and improved running back room under coach Anthony Jones Jr. has blossomed since game one. Transfer running backs Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders have led the way. Jordan boasts 286 rushing yards and three touchdowns, with Sanders recording 160 rushing yards and two touchdowns. 

Redshirt freshman running back King Miller has also taken snaps this season, with 152 rushing yards and averaging 13.8 yards. 

Aug 26, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Jose State Spartans quarterback Chevan Cordeiro (2) is brought down by Southern California Trojans linebacker Tackett Curtis (25) and defensive lineman Anthony Lucas (6) during the first half at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The strength on USC’s pass rush will also emerge as a key factor to a win over the Spartans, but must stop their stronger run game to do so. 

One of Michigan State’s most explosive running backs in Makhi Frazier has bolstered the Spartans ground production, and is cleared to face the Trojans after suffering a lower-body injury last weekend. 

Through three games, Frazier has totaled 206 rushing yards and two touchdowns. USC’s defense, which leads the nation with 14 sacks, will need to pressure Chiles early before the passing or running game develops. 

If they can thrive there, the Trojans can gain control quickly and position themselves for another win.

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