Three reasons for optimism, three reasons for concern for Virginia football in 2026

The Cavaliers have a chance at returning to the ACC title game -- if they can avoid pitfalls

Nov 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Virginia Cavaliers offensive lineman McKale Boley (52) blocks at the line of scrimmage against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Just 10 months ago, Tony Elliott's seat was as hot as that of any college football coach. He had failed to post a winning record (or reach a bowl game) in any of his three seasons in charge of Virginia's program.

Amazing what a school-record 11 victories, an Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season title and ACC Coach of the Year honors can do for a man's job security. The Cavaliers enter the 2026 season with more confidence and national prestige than they've enjoyed in decades.

There's reason to believe Virginia can return to Charlotte in December for a second straight ACC title game, and a shot at the College Football Playoff. But as with almost any program, there are also a few red flags that must be addressed.

Here are three reasons for Virginia fans to be optimistic -- and three causes for concern -- with the season opener just 12 weeks away:

On the plus side

1. A veteran offensive line

Every good offense starts up front, and Virginia figures to have a quintet that's nearly as old as some NFL teams'. All five projected starters are graduate students, including seventh-year collegian Monroe Mills, the presumptive left tackle.

Right tackle McKale Boley earned second-team all-ACC honors from Phil Steele magazine last season and returns along with center Drake Metcalf and left guard Noah Josey. Mills has starting experience at Louisville and Texas Tech, and Maklian Thomas started at Arkansas State.

That group should provide strong protection for a new group of offensive skill players (see below).

2. Defensive playmakers

Virginia's defense ranked second in the ACC in fewest points allowed (19.6 per game) and third in yards allowed (310.1). There has been some turnover, but several key components return, along with some promising newcomers.

When healthy, senior linebacker Kam Robinson is among the ACC's most dynamic defenders. He tore his ACL in a regular-season win over Duke, and his timetable for return is TBA. Even at less than full speed, though, he's a force.

Defensive end Fisher Camac contributed 4.5 sacks a year ago and figures to be even better this year. So does sophomore defensive back Corey Costner, who will be joined in the secondary by Michigan transfer Brandyn Hillman. This unit would have projected to be even stronger if defensive tackle Zion Wilson's appeal for a sixth season of eligibility had not been denied by the NCAA.

3. A favorable schedule

For the second straight season, neither Miami nor Clemson appears on Virginia's list of opponents. Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which tied for second in the 2025 standings, are also absent.

Virginia exploited a modest league schedule to rise to the top of the conference last fall, and has a chance to do so again. There will be road challenges against SMU and improved Virginia Tech and Florida State, but the opportunity for success is clear.

Potental red flags

1. New offensive skill players

Chandler Morris' bid for another season of eligibility was also denied, meaning offensive coordinator Des Kitchings must replace his starting quarterback, his top three rushers, and four most productive receivers from last season.

Kitchings did a nice job of successfully integrating a lot of new faces a year ago. He has the makings of a productive offense with transfers Beau Pribula (Missouri) at quarterback, Peyton Lewis (Tennessee) and Jekail Middlebrook (Middle Tennessee State) at running back and Rico Flores Jr. (UCLA) and Da'Shawn Martin (Kent State) at receiver.

Developing a chemistry similar to last year's will be a priority during training camp. It should help to have a veteran line blocking for them.

2. Roster turnover

With their jobs on the line, Elliott and his staff brought in 40 new players last season, and many of them contributed to Virginia's record-breaking 11-3 season. Many of them have since departed, leaving another group of transfers to try for an encore.

Cohesion can be a tricky thing, especially when adversity hits in the form of injuries or losses. We'll see if this group can adjust and adapt as well as the 2025 squad did. And even in the portal era, high school recruiting still needs to be the foundation of a successful program.

3. Karma?

Virginia won five games by a single score last season, including three in overtime and one on a tie-breaking fourth-quarter safety. That showed the Cavaliers' resiliency, but those things tend to even out over time.

If Florida State's Duce Robinson hadn't bobbled an end zone pass in overtime and/or North Carolina's Ben Hall had stretched the ball an inch farther on a decisive 2-point try, Virginia's 2025 season might not have looked quite so good. A bad bounce or an untimely injury can derail the best-laid plans. The Cavaliers have to make their own luck.