ESPN Releases FPI Game-By-Game Projections For Virginia Tech's 2026 Season

The end of the 'talking heads' portion of the offseason is nigh. With two days of the ACC Kickoff complete — the Hokies' segment is done — here's a look at the newly-released ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) game-by-game projections for Virginia Tech football:

Game 1: vs. VMI: 99%

Like last year's FCS clash against Wofford, Virginia Tech enters this contest with minimal implications, looking to claim a facile victory and open the James Franklin era with a resounding victory. That shouldn't come at much difficulty.

FPI record: 1-0

Game 2, vs. Old Dominion: 84.7%

Last year's win probability was similar in the preseason. Entering Week 1, the 2025 edition of the Hokies held a 85.5% win probability over the Monarchs, a total that decreased to 83% after Tech lost to South Carolina, then 65.6% after its loss to Vanderbilt.

The Hokies lost last year's rendition in a 45-26 blowout that saw them trail 31-0 early in the fourth quarter. One day after the 19-point loss, then-head coach Brent Pry was fired. For Virginia Tech to start off this era on the right foot, avenging this loss is critical.

FPI record: 2-0

Game 3, at Maryland: 63.1%

Virginia Tech hasn't won an out-of-conference Power Four game since the 2017 season, but if there's a time to do it, it draws a prime chance here when it travels for its first road game of the season to play the Terrapins. Maryland went 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten), and though it won four straight to open the year, it subsequently ended the campaign on a four-game skid, placing head coach Mike Locksley's status under further jeopardy. This early-season contest is essential for both squads — Virginia Tech to continue its presumably strong start to the season, and for Maryland to showcase a spark under Locksley.

FPI record: 3-0

Game 4, at Boston College: 71.9%

The FPI metric projects that the good times keep rolling for Virginia Tech when it travels on the road to Chestnut Hill, Mass., to open league play. Despite starting ACC play away from home, it nabs an ideal draw in Boston College, which went 2-10 (1-7 ACC) last season to finish at the cellar of the conference. The Eagles will be led by Division II transfer Mason McKenzie, who was named GLIAC Player of the Year after throwing for 17 touchdowns. The hope is that he'll be the second rendition of Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss — a fellow D-II-to-P4 mover — but given the unlikelihood of such a replication occuring, Virginia Tech is significantly favored and would move to 4-0 if the FPI proceeds as chalk.

FPI record: 4-0

Game 5, vs. Pitt: 58.6%

FPI projects the Hokies' game to be reasonably close to a 50-50 toss-up against the Panthers, but it has Tech edging out to improve to 5-0. Pitt is one of just two schools in the first five teams that Tech faces that will return its signal-caller that it ended 2025 with: true sophomore Mason Heintschel. Heintschel threw for 2,354 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions as a true freshman, throwing for 323 yards and four touchdowns against Boston College, as well as two touchdowns and 226 passing yards in a 42-28 victory over then-No. 16 Georgia Tech.

FPI record: 5-0

Game 6, at Cal: 57.2%

Like the Pitt game before it, the FPI metric has earmarked the Virginia Tech-Cal game as another relatively even affair, but one that the Hokies emerge victorious from.

A victory would mark Tech's second straight against the Golden Bears, coming a season after the Hokies took down Cal 42-34 in double overtime. It was one of three Virginia Tech victories in the 2025 campaign, joining wins over Wofford (38-6) and NC State (23-21). Virginia Tech hasn't started a season 6-0 since 2005.

California Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele flashed for the Golden Bears last season, throwing for an impressive 3,454 passing yards and adding 18 passing touchdowns to nine picks. He went 31-for-40 for 330 passing yards and four touchdowns in California's 38-35 victory over then-No. 21 SMU in the regular-season finale, denying the Mustangs a trip to the ACC title game.

FPI record: 6-0

Game 7, vs. Georgia Tech: 66%

Per the FPI metric, Virginia Tech improves to an impressive 7-0 by beating the Yellow Jackets, which would mark its first 7-0 start since 2005. Virginia Tech has stated 7-0 only four times since 1998 (1999, 2000, 2002, 2005).

The Yellow Jackets will be led by Alberto Mendoza under center, the younger brother of 2025 Heisman winner and No. 1 draft pick Fernando Mendoza. The younger Mendoza threw for 286 passing yards, five touchdowns and a pick in mop-up duty, adding 190 rushing yards (14.6 yards per carry) on the ground for good measure. Still, his inexperience under center is part of why FPI has the Hokies favored and why they move to 7-0 if the metric proceeds as chalk.

FPI record: 7-0

Game 8, at Clemson: 26.9%

FPI hands VIrginia Tech its first loss of the season, and it'll come at Memorial Stadium, a venue in which Virginia Tech hasn't played at since 2012 and hasn't won in since 2007. Clemson will start Christopher Vizzina, who's spent the last two years as the backup to Cade Klubnik.

Vizzina is inexperienced, having only started one game in his collegiate career. He went 29-for-42 last season against SMU, throwing for 317 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 35-24 loss to the Mustangs. Clemson went 7-6 (4-4 ACC), losing in the Pinstripe Bowl to Penn State and now-Hokies quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer. The hope for the Tigers is that they'll rediscover the Clemson form of yesteryear, and FPI at least favors Clemson to get it done over the Hokies.

FPI record: 7-1

Game 9, at SMU: 33.8%

Virginia Tech enters the SMU contest as underdogs in a venue it hasn't played at since 1974. The Hokies' unknowns across the board, plus SMU's comfort at quarterback — now-third-year starter Kevin Jennings threw for 3,641 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions a season ago — means that the Mustangs, who should be ACC title threats again, enter this contest as significant favorites.

Virginia Tech's win probability against SMU is third-lowest, only behind Clemson (26.9%) and Miami (10.8%). It's not impossible that the Hokies claim this Dallas tussle, but it is unlikely.

FPI record: 7-2

Game 10, vs. Stanford: 84.8%

Virginia Tech beat Stanford in a pedestrian 31-7 affair when it ventured to the Golden State two years ago, and given that the Cardinal will presumably start Davis Warren — he hasn't played since the 2024 season at Michigan, where he was up-and-down with a 1,199-yard, seven-touchdown, nine-interception season — Virginia Tech should have the upper hand in this affair.

Such a win would move Virginia Tech's FPI record to 8-2, a record, that if true in reality, would be the best such record through 10 games for the Hokies since 2011 (9-1).

FPI record: 8-2

Game 11, at Miami: 10.8%

Miami is favored over the Hokies by a likely unsurmountable margin. The Hurricanes boast playmakers all over, spearheaded by their quarterback. Darian Mensah comes over from Duke after throwing for 3,973 yards (No. 2 in FBS) and 34 touchdowns (ibid, No. 1 in ACC) en route to a All-ACC Second-Team nod.

At wideout, there's Duke transfer Cooper Barkate (1,106 yards, seven touchdowns in 2025), Cam Vaughn (1,344 yards over past two seasons) and true sophomore Malachi Toney (1,211 receiving yards — No. 5 in FBS, 10 touchdowns). Plus, at running back, the Hurricanes sport Mark Fletcher (1,192 yards, 12 touchdowns) and Charmar Brown (474 yards, seven touchdowns), plus Girard Pringle (375 yards, four touchdowns).

That doesn't stop when pivoting towards the defense. The Hurricanes are anchored on the line by Ahmad Moten Sr. (31 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Armondo Blount (17 tackles, 2.5 sacks), though it's presumably not to the same quality that last season's D-line, which sported Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, was at. Miami should enter its Nov. 21 clash against Virginia Tech in a significantly higher standing than the Hokies and for good reason.

FPI record: 8-3

Game 12, vs. Virginia: 54.3%

Virginia Tech has not lost to the Cavaliers in Lane Stadium since the 1998 season. The Hokies won 19 of 20 spanning from 2004 to 2024, including 15 straight from 2004 through 2018.

Virginia claimed last year's contest in a 27-7 blowout that only saw Virginia Tech score in the final quarter off a 57-yard house call from freshman wide receiver Shamarius "Snook" Peterkin. In that contest, signal-caller Kyron Drones threw for 78 passing yards on a 4-of-16 rate — a total that decreases to only 21 yards on 3-of-15 completion when disregarding his touchdown pass to Peterkin. The Hokies should enter this Thanksgiving weekend affair in a much better spot at quarterback though, which gives it a fair shot of reclaiming the Commonwealth Clash trophy.

FPI record: 9-3

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