What ESPN Analytics Say About West Virginia's Chances Against Ohio State

A coin flip game in Cleveland?

Dec 9, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Ross Hodge smiles along the sideline during the second half against the Little Rock Trojans at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

If the West Virginia Mountaineers want a chance at making the NCAA Tournament, tonight's game against Ohio State is one they have to get. Yes, there's a ton of season left, but with each loss, your resume takes a hit, and with a brutal 18-game league schedule on deck, things aren't going to get any easier.

This will be the 19th time the Mountaineers and Buckeyes have met on the hardwood, with Ohio State holding a 10-8 edge in the series. OSU won the first eight meetings (all before 1982), while WVU has won eight of the last ten. This century, WVU has won three of the four games, with its only loss coming two years ago when the Mountaineers had a depleted roster and an interim head coach.

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has a 46.8% chance to win while the Buckeyes have a 53.2% chance, perhaps with a slight boost in the crowd and on the offensive end of the floor.

West Virginia's recent games

The Mountaineers have won three of their last four, but all three wins have come against inferior opponents in Mercyhurst, Coppin State, and Little Rock — all of which rank over 300th in KenPom. The only loss in that stretch came to the only team with a heartbeat, Wake Forest. WVU has struggled in these games against high majors all season, and with how explosive Ohio State's offense is, they're going to have to lock in and run good, efficient offense, or it could be a long night.

Ohio State's recent games

Since losing to Pitt via a near half-court buzzer-beater, the Buckeyes have stepped into Big Ten Conference play, picking up a road win over Northwestern and dropping to No. 13 Illinois at home. The Illini won that game with an efficient night shooting the ball from beyond the arc (11/27) and by going an absurd 29/32 from the free throw line. In that loss to Pitt, the difference in the game was the turnover battle. Pitt only turned it over five times, as opposed to Ohio State's 13 throwaways, which resulted in 17 points for the Panthers. West Virginia has done a pretty good job of turning teams over this season, but it has to convert those turnovers into points at a higher clip.

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