Big 12 Preseason Power Rankings and Record Predictions for All 16 Teams

The Big 12 did away with the preseason media poll after Arizona State proved everyone wrong by winning the league despite being picked to finish dead last this time a year ago. While the Big 12 is moving on from its preseason poll, we are rolling full steam ahead.

Here we go. Here's my preseason Big 12 power rankings.

Note: Power rankings will be updated every Sunday throughout the season.

16. UCF Knights

Jul 8, 2025; Frisco, TX, USA; UCF head coach Scott Frost addresses the media during 2025 Big 12 Football Media Days at The Star. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 2-10 (0-9)

It's really hard to go winless in any league, regardless of how much of a disadvantage you're in on a weekly basis. I thought I would have UCF around four wins, but when going through the schedule, I ended up only finding two I felt were certainties.

The Knights will usher in the Scott Frost 2.0 era with a bunch of new faces, creating several question marks on both sides of the ball. Skill-wise, they're going to have to count on several unproven commodities or guys who have yet to make their mark, such as QB Tayven Jackson, RB Myles Montgomery, and receivers Marcus Burke and Duane Thomas. To make matters worse, I have UCF's offensive line rated as the 14th-best in the Big 12. Points may be hard to come by for the Knights this fall.

Defensively, I like the potential of the d-line group, particularly the trio of Malachi Lawrence, RJ Jackson, and Nyjalik Kelly. They are going to have to set the tone and get after the quarterback, or they will have some long afternoons with a rather weak secondary.

15. Colorado Buffaloes

Record prediction: 3-9 (1-8)

Look, I don't truly believe Colorado has the talent of a three-win team, but my goodness, their schedule is no joke. Their first four games in league play come against BYU, TCU, Iowa State, and Utah. They end the year with Arizona State and Kansas State. All six of those teams could make a run at the Big 12 title.

The Buffs lost a ton of production from their offense, and more than just QB Shedeur Sanders and WR Travis Hunter. Now, they have a true quarterback competition with an offensive line that still could have some issues and a run game that's been virtually non-existent over the last two years. Incarnate Word transfer DeKalon Taylor could help change their fortunes on the ground, but I can't put a ton of faith in this inexperienced o-line to figure things out.

The easiest way for Colorado to prove me wrong is for their defense to take a serious step. I'm a firm believer that they have one of the top linebacker duos in the Big 12 with Martavius French and Reggie Hughes (163 combined tackles in 2024), but the two transfers will have to learn how to work off one another. DJ McKinney may be one of the top corners the league has to offer as well, so they have some pieces; they just need to take a step as a unit.

14. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Record prediction: 5-7 (3-6)

Would not be surprised if the Pokes won fewer than five. The road game at Oregon is going to be a monumental challenge, and that Tulsa game two weeks later could bite them if they're not careful.

There's not much to love with this roster, including the production they return on offense or lack thereof. Zane Flores and Hauss Hejny will battle it out for the starting QB job, but I'm not sure either will exactly strike fear into a defense. The Cowboys have always had solid production in the run game, but I'm not so sure that will exist this season either. Rodney Fields and Trent Howland rushed for a combined 329 yards last season, albeit behind Ollie Gordon.

Defensively, Mike Gundy will have at least six transfers in starting spots, most notably Kyran Duhon, who had seven sacks last season with UTEP. Outside of him and Malik Charles (West Georgia LB transfer), who also had seven sacks, I'm not sure where the pass rush is going to come from. They do have some stability in the back end, which is probably the one area Gundy can breathe a little easier about.

13. Arizona Wildcats

Oct 19, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Brent Brennan against the Colorado Buffalos at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 5-7 (3-6)

As far as the in-league schedule is concerned, the Wildcats have an opportunity to rack up some wins from mid-October through mid-November, but I could see them stubbing their foot a time or two, dropping them out of bowl contention.

QB Noah Fifita had a disappointing season in 2024, leading the conference with 12 interceptions, while seeing his completion percentage drop nearly 12 full points to 60.5. If Arizona has any shot of climbing out of the cellar and competing for something, it starts with Fifita returning to his 2023 form. The problem? He no longer has Tetairoa McMillan to get the ball to. Expect a more balanced approach this fall with Texas State RB transfer Ismail Mahdi helping shoulder some of the load.

Brent Brennan had some stingy defenses during his time at San Jose State, but he still has a lot of work to do to fix that side of the ball in Tucson. The Wildcats ranked 113th in total defense a year ago and have nine of those starters back. Is that a good thing?

12. Houston Cougars

Oct 4, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Willie Fritz walks on the field during a timeout in the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 5-7 (3-6)

I'm a big Willie Fritz believer and do expect him to be the man to turn Houston into a competitive team in the Big 12, which they showed signs of a year ago. Getting over the hump and playing winning football may take another year or so, however.

While they did land Texas A&M QB transfer and former five-star recruit Conner Weigman in the transfer portal, he has to stay healthy for the Cougs to have a chance. He's battled injuries throughout his career, which has likely played a role in his inconsistency. Fortunately, Houston does have a stable of backs they can lean on in Re'Shaun Sanford, Dean Connors (Rice transfer), and Stacy Sneed. Weigman will also have who I believe is the top tight end in the Big 12 in Tanner Koziol, who comes in from Ball State.

Defense is what Fritz hangs his hat on, and he has the playmakers at all three levels to form a top half of the league unit this fall. They have some serious question marks at linebacker, but the talent is there. The group up front, headed by Eddie Walls and Carlos Allen, will help that second level out greatly.

11. Kansas Jayhawks

Record prediction: 5-7 (3-6)

Much like Oklahoma State, I hesitate to rank or project Kansas to finish this low because of how good a coach Lance Leipold is. This year's slate just doesn't do them any favors, unfortunately.

Continuing our theme of comparing Kansas' situation to others, they need a big bounce-back season from QB Jalon Daniels, maybe even more so than Arizona needs Fifita. Why do I say that? Well, I'm confident Arizona has the running backs to balance things out, whereas I have some uncertainty with what Daniel Hishaw can do in an expanded role, although he'll be helped out by Iowa transfer LeShon Williams. If Daniels struggles to complete passes again, Kansas will be scrambling for answers.

On the other side of the ball, they do have some intriguing pieces within the front seven, all of which they plucked from the transfer portal - DL Justice Finkley (Texas), LB Trey Lathan (West Virginia), and LB Bangally Kamara (South Carolina). Their depth in the secondary is a little concerning.

10. West Virginia Mountaineers

Record prediction: 7-5 (4-5)

Rich Rod is back in Morgantown, and the nostalgia is strong. Although the Mountaineers should get back on track soon, I have my doubts that it'll happen this fall.

Rodriguez has always been known to have success running the football, and he may just have the best duo in the league with Jahiem White and Jaylan Knighton (SMU transfer). White alone will do a lot of damage and could be a Big 12 Player of the Year candidate, depending on what kind of numbers he puts up. WVU will, however, have to replace its entire starting offensive line (and two deep), in addition to having a quarterback competition.

One of Rodriguez's biggest scores this offseason was poaching sitting defensive coordinator Zac Alley away from Oklahoma. He's widely regarded as one of the brightest young defensive minds in football, but he, too, will have his hands full with a rash of newcomers. They have a couple of studs in the secondary with cornerback Michael Coats Jr. (Nevada transfer) and safety Fred Perry (Jacksonville State transfer). The big question is whether or not pass rusher Jimmori Robinson, who comes in from UTSA, will get an additional year of eligibility. WVU is still waiting word from the NCAA.

9. Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield speaks with Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) before the College Football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Houston Cougars at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Record prediction: 6-6 (4-5)

I'm okay with the power ranking here for the Bearcats, but I feel off with the 6-6 record. Of all the teams in the bottom half of this list, Cincinnati is the one that I would take a shot on to finish in the top five. I know, it's crazy with the 6-6 prediction, but this is a tough team to figure out.

Offensively, Scott Satterfield has some reliable, proven playmakers at the skill positions. Brendan Sorsby is a seasoned quarterback who could be one of the most slept-on signal-callers in the country. Meanwhile, the backfield could surprise a lot of folks. Evan Pryor will now share the workload with Wisconsin transfer Tawee Walker, who put up 864 yards and 10 touchdowns last fall. With the additions of left tackle Joe Cotton (South Dakota) and right guard Taran Tyo (Ball State), Cincinnati has one of the most experienced lines in the Big 12.

The problem is that the offense may have to pull much of the weight. Defensive lineman Dontay Corleone is as good as there is, but he's going to need some help within that front seven, which means someone is going to have to take a big step from a year ago. They did revamp the secondary through the transfer portal, so if they can limit the ground game, they could steal a couple of wins.

8. BYU Cougars

Record prediction: 7-5 (4-5)

I'll be honest, even before the Jake Retzlaff news came out, I wasn't all on board for BYU running it back and being right in the thick of things again. Retzlaff played well, but it's not like he was one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He had a lot of help.

The quarterback situation is one of the biggest reasons I'm holding BYU outside of the top tier or two for now. McCae Hillstead? Treyson Bourguet? Are either capable of replicating what Retzlaff was able to do in 2024? I have no idea. What I do know is that the Cougars return running back LJ Martin, and although on paper the big guys up front look like a concern, Kalani Sitake always seems to figure it out.

For BYU to stay atop the Big 12, they'll need their defense to outperform expectations, which I'm not sure they have the horses to do, particularly from their second unit. Key players to watch on this side of the ball are DL Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah transfer), DL Justin Kirkland (Oklahoma State transfer), and CB Mory Bamba.

7. TCU Horned Frogs

Sep 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes reacts to play against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 8-4 (6-3)

Alright, now we're starting to enter dark horse contender territory. The Big 12's hard enough, but TCU had to make life a little more difficult by scheduling North Carolina in Week 1, on top of the Battle for the Iron Skillet (vs. SMU). If they get through that stretch unscathed, they'll gain some wiggle room for an at-large bid - that's if they do well enough in the other nine games.

The Horned Frogs have one of the most prolific passing attacks in college football, led by Josh Hoover - you know, the guy Tennessee tried to lure away after losing Nico Iamaleava to the portal. Hoover has a TON of help around him with Eric McAlister (762 rec. yards) returning, Jordan Dwyer (1,192 rec. yards at Idaho State), and, in my opinion, the best offensive line in the league. I do have some doubts about their ability to run the ball, but as long as Hoover and Co. are humming, they'll take whatever the run game can produce.

TCU's defense ranked 53rd a year ago, but the unit is littered with talent and all-league potential. Veteran safety Bud Clark is a real problem in the back end, but guys like DE Paul Oyewale, DT Ansel Din-Mbuh, and LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr are names you may not know much of now, but will soon. If this side plays to its potential and beyond, the Frogs are a threat to reach Dallas.

6. Kansas State Wildcats

Oct 19, 2024; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Kansas State Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman argues a call during the second quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 9-3 (6-3)

If you're a K-State fan coming across this, don't get too upset with me. I still expect K-State to contend, and hey, I've picked you to win the league in two of the last three years.

Avery Johnson is the key here, of course. If he can increase his completion percentage and cut out a few turnovers, ths offense will reach a whole other level. From a talent standpoint, he's as good as any QB in the Big 12. The duo of Dylan Edwards and Joe Jackson doesn't have a ton of yardage to their names, but that stems from sitting behind DJ Giddens. To me, the real question mark on offense is the big fellas, where three of the five projected starters have fewer than ten career starts.

Many of K-State's defensive pickups in the portal will likely serve as depth pieces, but safety Gunner Maldonado (Arizona) is a game-changer in the back end. He's a sure tackler who has a nose for the football, picking off four passes and forcing six fumbles in his career.

5. Arizona State Sun Devils

Jan 1, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham walks off the field after a loss to the Texas Longhorns in the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 9-3 (6-3)

As talented as the Sun Devils are, they are just as prone to tripping up a few times as the other top teams in this league. The Big 12 is going to beat each other up, as it usually does, which could hurt the odds of it being a multi-bid playoff league.

Outside of Baylor, ASU may have the most well-rounded offense in the conference. Sam Leavitt is back after an electric first year as the starter, in which he led the team to a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff appearance. Jordyn Tyson and Jalen Moss will form one of the top receiving duos, which will be complemented by a strong trio in the backfield with Army transfer Kanye Udoh likely leading the way as Cam Skattebo's replacement.

Defensively, I think this group will surprise a lot of people. This unit gave up over 412 yards/game in 2024, but they're older and more mature. Hard to believe I'm saying this, but they may have the most playmakers in the secondary of any Big 12 team - CB Keith Abney, CB Javan Robinson, S Xavion Alford, and S Myles Rower - all guys who can change a game.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head coach Joey McGuire looks on during the Texas Tech football team's spring game, Saturday, April 19, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Record prediction: 10-2 (7-2)

Typically, I don't hop on the hype train of a team that hasn't done much in recent memory, but this time, I'm making an exception. I loved what I saw from the Red Raiders a year ago, considering how much of an issue the defense was.

Speaking of the defense, let's start with that side of the ball first, since it is the main reason they have all this hype. Tech spent a lot of money in the transfer portal, addressing virtually every hole. The entire starting d-line is brand new, yet loaded with talent - DE David Bailey (Stanford), NT Lee Hunter (UCF), Skylar Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois), and Romello Height (Georgia Tech). They also added Mississippi State CB transfer Brice Pollock and North Dakota State safety Cole Wisniewski, while bringing back top linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. From top to bottom, this group has the most potential in the Big 12.

Now, what Texas Tech is traditionally known for - offense. QB Behren Morton's accuracy and big-play ability make him a handful to deal with. He threw for over 3,330 yards and 27 touchdowns a year ago, and will have Coy Eakin (652 yds) and Caleb Douglas (877 yards) back with Miami (OH) transfer Reggie Virgil now in the mix. Right now, it doesn't seem like the Red Raiders will have a feature back, so it may have to be a by-committee ordeal. If they get average production from the backs, there's no stopping this offense.

3. Utah Utes

Oct 26, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham reacts during the second half against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 10-2 (7-2)

This is me going against my gut 100%. For some reason, I have this feeling that the Utes are going to struggle once again, but I kept putting Ws in the win column as I made my way through the schedule. I don't feel too out of reach with this, considering many others are picking Utah high as well.

The main difference for the Utes this year will be the quarterback play. No, New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier isn't a refined passer, but he's good enough, and his legs more than make up for it. Between he and running back Wayshawn Parker, they'll be able to run the ball, which is already more than what they could accomplish a season ago.

Defensively, they're experienced, bringing back seven starters from last season - a unit that allowed just 22.5 points per game. Defensive end Logan Fano, LB Lander Barton, and safety Tao Johnson are All-Big 12 caliber players.

2. Iowa State Cyclones

Dec 7, 2024; Arlington, TX, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell during the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Arizona State Sun Devils at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 9-3 (7-2)

Is this the year Matt Campbell finally raises the Big 12 trophy above his head? It just might be. The Cyclones kicked the door open last year by making it to the title game, but were beaten soundly by Arizona State, 45-19.

Of the "contenders," this is the wide receiver group I'm least confident in, but having a successful, winning veteran quarterback like Rocco Becht will cover that up. Plus, running backs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama are each capable of hitting the 1,000-yard mark.

The one thing I am certain of with Iowa State every year is that Jon Heacock will have a fundamentally sound defense that doesn't give up big plays or shoot itself in the foot. They get linebacker Caleb Bacon back after missing most of last season with a leg injury, pairing him up with rising star Kooper Ebel. Nose Dominique Orange is a game-wrecker up front, while safety Jeremiah Cooper is a name to watch in the back end.

1. Baylor Bears

Nov 2, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda reacts during a timeout against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Record prediction: 10-2 (7-2)

Baylor back to the top? I think so. While Arizona State and Iowa State may be "safer" picks, I'm shooting my shot here with the Bears. They are one of the most complete teams in the league. You have to look really hard to find a true weakness.

Once Sawyer Robertson was handed the keys to the offense last season, the Bears got things turned around, and he was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country. He was carving up defenses left and right, while also scrambling for 230 yards and four scores with his legs. What takes them over the top for me is the plethora of options at running back (Bryson Washington, Dawson Pendergrass) and receiver (Josh Cameron, Ashtyn Hawkins, Louis Brown). Not to mention, Michael Trigg, who is an NFL-caliber tight end.

The d-line isn't maybe where Dave Aranda would like for it to be, but he won't have to worry that much, thanks to the linebacker tandem of Keaton Thomas and Travion Barnes, who can clean up behind them. Both recorded over 100 tackles last season. Knowing Aranda will have a legit offense to match his always stingy defense gives me comfortability to pick them to win the league.

16. UCF Knights

15. Colorado Buffaloes

14. Oklahoma State Cowboys

13. Arizona Wildcats

12. Houston Cougars

11. Kansas Jayhawks

10. West Virginia Mountaineers

9. Cincinnati Bearcats

8. BYU Cougars

7. TCU Horned Frogs

6. Kansas State Wildcats

5. Arizona State Sun Devils

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders

3. Utah Utes

2. Iowa State Cyclones

1. Baylor Bears

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