SP+ Predicts Interesting Final Score Between West Virginia and Arizona

Bill Connelly's model projects this week's game between the Mountaineers and Wildcats.

West Virginia University safety Da’Mare Williams | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

This weekend is a game that the West Virginia Mountaineers need to have against Arizona to avoid a third straight loss and dropping to .500 for the year. WVU does have some things working in its favor with the Wildcats down key players at the skill positions in addition to playing abnormally early by their standards.

ESPN's Bill Connelly's SP+ model doesn't think it will be enough, though, for the Mountaineers to get back in the win column, projecting a 34-24 victory for the visitors.

I'm sorry...what???

West Virginia University Football | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

Look, I can fully understand Arizona being the projected winner, but only a combined 58 points? I'm not so sure about that. Yes, the Wildcats have been good against the run, but their blitz-happy nature makes them vulnerable to explosive plays in the passing game, which WVU has hit on consistently all year. And while they do have the 11th-ranked run defense in the country, they haven't quite seen a rushing attack like the one they will face on Saturday in Morgantown, which averages just a shade under 295 yards per game. The Mountaineers will move the ball and score points, just like Arizona will.

If the final score ends up 34-24, I'd see it actually going WVU's way, believe it or not. This would likely mean that the Mountaineers are able to force a couple of turnovers, and the absence of Tre Spivey, Chris Hunter III, and Gio Richardson impacts Arizona's ability to be as potent through the air. Again, I don't see that being the case, just like I don't expect West Virginia to be held to just 24 points.

What a loss would mean for the Mountaineers

West Virginia University quarterback Mike Hawkins Jr. | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

Dropping to 3-3 is far from ideal, especially when you look at the remainder of the schedule — games against TCU and Texas Tech on the road, Houston comes to Morgantown, and then a road trip to Utah to end the year. Not to mention, going to TCU won't be easy.

I'll keep saying it, though: With the way this offense moves the ball and puts it into the end zone, it makes the schedule not nearly as daunting as it may be with a shaky unit to go along with a struggling defense. There may be games that the Mountaineers win that they are not expected to because of that offense, and this weekend against the Wildcats could be one of them.