Miami vs. USF score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. USF in this Week 3 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Miami Hurricanes vs. USF Bulls score prediction 2025 | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Here is the latest prediction for Miami vs. USF in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday from an expert analytical model that projects scores.

This game looks a lot more intriguing than it did a few weeks ago, as USF has emerged as college football’s early contender for surprise team of the year.

Through two weeks, the Bulls are the only team in the country to beat two AP top 25 ranked opponents after knocking off playoff quarterfinalist Boise State in the opener and then stunning 13th ranked Florida on the road on a last-second field goal.

Since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950, only four teams have started 3-0 with all three victories coming against ranked opponents.

In looking to become the fifth team in that rare category, the Bulls will face what could be their biggest challenge going on the road against the new presumptive ACC title favorite.

Miami has marched out to a confident 2-0 mark after knocking off CFP runner-up Notre Dame by a field goal in the opener and then pounding Bethune Cookman after that, as Carson Beck has looked the part so far, completing 76 percent of his pass attempts.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Hurricanes and Bulls meet in this marquee non-conference matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and USF compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Miami vs. USF score prediction

Despite the Bulls’ early success, the model is still favoring the Hurricanes at home, and by a decent margin.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat USF by a projected score of 38 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 14 points.

The model forecasts the Hurricanes will win the game outright with 81 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 50-48 against the spread with a 51.0 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

Predictably, the Hurricanes remain the betting favorites over the Bulls this weekend.

Miami is a 17.5 point favorite against USF, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -750 and for USF +530 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• USF +17.5
• Miami to win -750
• Bet over 56.5 points

A strong majority of bettors have faith in the Bulls to keep things close against the Hurricanes in this third game against a ranked opponent.

USF is getting 70 percent of bets to either upset Miami outright or to at least keep the final margin under 18 points in a loss on the road.

The other 30 percent of wagers project Miami will hold the line at home and cover this big point spread by knocking off the Bulls by at least 18 points.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Hurricanes over the Bulls this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is the big favorite over USF straight-up, coming out ahead in the majority 72.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves the Bulls as the presumptive winner in the remaining 27.8 percent of sims.

What does that look like on the scoreboard when all is said and done in Miami Gardens?

After simulating the game 20,000 times, the model projects that Miami will be just 6.1 points better than USF on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Miami vs. USF game winner

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How to watch Miami vs. USF

When: Sat., Sept. 13
Where: Miami

Time: 4:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: The CW Network

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