Michigan vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Oklahoma in this Week 2 college football matchup from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Michigan Wolverines football game score prediction 2025 | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The marquee matchup of college football’s Week 2 action finds a notable Big Ten vs. SEC clash between top 25 ranked opponents as No. 15 Michigan faces off on the road against No. 18 Oklahoma. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores.

So far, so good from Bryce Underwood, the former No. 1 overall recruit who Michigan flipped from LSU, and who passed for 251 yards in his college football debut as the Wolverines got past New Mexico in last Saturday’s season opener.

Even more impressive was Justice Haynes, the former Alabama transfer running back who scored three touchdowns in his first outing for the maize and blue.

Now comes a stiffer test not just for the Wolverines, but for the Big Ten on its two-year national championship winning streak, facing off on the road against an Oklahoma side playing its second season in the SEC and hoping it goes much better than the first.

OU’s debut in the Southeastern Conference resulted in a 6-7 record behind an offense that suffered behind dismal protection and endured seemingly countless injuries to key skill players all season.

Now, the unit is piloted by quarterback John Mateer, one of the nation’s top transfers after a very successful season at Washington State, and who impressed in his first time out, setting a record for the most passing yards in any quarterback’s OU debut (392).

What do the analytics suggest for when the Wolverines and Sooners meet on the same field in this SEC vs. Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Oklahoma compare in this Week 2 college football game.

Oklahoma vs. Michigan score prediction

As may have been expected, the model is siding with the SEC side of this matchup against its Big Ten counterpart, but by a very slim difference.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 26 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5.7 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Sooners a narrow 64 percent chance to win outright at home.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 23-25 against the spread with a 47.9 win percentage.

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Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

How to bet Oklahoma vs. Michigan

The sportsbooks are giving the home team a slight edge in the latest odds for the meeting.

Oklahoma is a 5.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -210 and for Michigan at +172 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oklahoma -5.5
• Sooners to win -210
• Bet over 44.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a slim majority of bettors, who are almost evenly split when making their picks for this game.

That majority of bets expect the Sooners to take care of business against the Wolverines in this non-conference clash, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oklahoma is getting 52 percent of bets to win the game outright by at least six points and cover the narrow point spread to move to 2-0.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Michigan will either defeat the Sooners outright on the road in an upset, or keep the game under six points in a loss.

Michigan at Oklahoma picks: Where the experts see an edge

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models are also going with the Sooners over the Wolverines as the preferred home team, but still by narrow margins.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma is projected to win the game outright in the slight majority 53.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.5 percent of sims.

How does those simulations translate into an expected margin of victory for the favorite? Expect this one to come down to a single point if the computers are right.

Oklahoma is projected to be just 0.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More ... Oklahoma vs. Michigan prediction: What the analytics say

SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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College Football HQ prediction

There’s a difference of opinion between the two primary football prediction models when forecasting what will happen when the Sooners host the Wolverines this weekend.

Between the two, the power index has proven the more accurate when making its predictions both straight-up and against the spread so far this year.

Oklahoma didn’t throw the football for more than 300 yards in any game all of last season, and it took Mateer one try to get to nearly 400. Sure, take the opposition into account -- it was Illinois State -- but it’s a start.

Still, the Sooners’ offense is far from an answered riddle. Their run game, for instance, amassed just 3.2 yards per touch last weekend with lucrative transfer back Jadyn Ott sidelined with what coach Brent Venables said was the effects of a lingering injury.

Mateer will face a far stiffer test against a Michigan defense that should be very good against the run, and is no slouch in the secondary, either.

Ditto for the Sooners’ front seven, now under the direct management of Venables himself, and which looks plenty nasty itself.

Don’t expect a ton of points early on, or at all, in what should be a low-scoring battle with the edge going to the home side, but not by as much as a touchdown.

College Football HQ picks: Oklahoma wins by 4, doesn’t cover the spread.

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How to watch Michigan vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Oklahoma

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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