Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 9

Iain MacMillan | Oct 24, 2025

Michigan is a significant road favorite against Michigan State in Week 9 of the college football season. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan has quietly put together a solid season so far. Sure, the Wolverines aren't the National Championship contender they were just a few short years ago, but they're sitting at 5-2 on the season and are the No. 25-ranked team in the country.

That puts them in a strong position against their in-state rival, Michigan State, in Week 9 action on Saturday. Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for this marquee matchup.

Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Michigan -14.5 (-105)
• Michigan State +14.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Michigan -670
• Michigan State +470

Total

• OVER 48.5 (-105)
• UNDER 48.5 (-115)

Michigan vs. Michigan State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 25
• Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
• Venue: Spartan Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): NBC
• Michigan Record: 5-2
• Michigan State Record: 3-4

Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

• The UNDER is 6-3 in Michigan's last nine games
• Michigan State is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Michigan
• The UNDER is 5-1 in Michigan's last six road games
• Michigan State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
• The OVER is 5-1 in Michigan State's last six games
• Michigan State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games

Michigan vs. Michigan State Key Player to Watch

• Bryce Underwood, QB - Michigan Wolverines

Bryce Underwood didn't immediately become a top quarterback in the country as soon as the Freshman took the field, but he has been very solid for them for a young player. He has thrown for 1,440 yards while adding 202 yards with his legs. Continuing his development should be Michigan's biggest concern the rest of the season.

Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

This game has all the signs of being a lopsided affair. Michigan State has had a rough 2025 campaign, and the Spartans now enter Week 9 ranking 114th in the country in adjusted EPA per play, with a Net Success Rate of -1.0% and a Net Yards per Play of -0.72. Meanwhile, the Wolverines rank 14th among all teams in adjusted EPA per Play, along with a Net Success Rate of +5.7% and a Net Yards per Play of +1.73.

Michigan is primarily a run-first football team, which is bad news for a Spartans defense that has allowed 4.93 yards per carry this season. The Wolverines should be able to run the ball at will against this defense. I have faith they can win and cover the spread as road favorites.

Pick: Michigan -14.5 (-105) via FanDuel

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