Let's Figure Out What is Wrong with Mariners' Star Julio Rodriguez at the Plate

The Seattle Mariners are 19-16 on this season, but they are doing it somehow without superstar Julio Rodriguez getting going. What exactly is going on with the two-time All-Star and former Rookie of the Year?

May 5, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) flips the bat / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners, who have playoff goals this season, are off to a nice 19-16 start through their first 35 games this year. However, the record feels a little tenuous considering that the M's are relying almost solely on historically great starting pitching and are getting very little from an offense they expected to be better this season.

Newcomers Mitch Garver (.163) and Jorge Polanco (.195) are both hitting under .200. Mitch Haniger, Cal Raleigh and Dylan Moore are all hitting under .215, so this offensive funk the M's are in is certainly an across the board failure.

But the biggest frustration and anomoly of them all is Julio Rodriguez. Rodriguez, who is a two-time All-Star and a former Rookie of the Year, has looked lost at the plate at times. He's hitting .254 but has only one homer and seven RBI through 138 at-bats. For a team that is as light-hitting as Seattle, they can't afford to have their best player posting a .603 OPS at this point in the season.

Let's examine a litle bit about what's up with Julio:

1) Baseball is hard. It could just be this simple, right? Baseball is a hard game and even the best players struggle - and can struggle for a while. And I'm not trying to sugercoat Rodriguez's struggles, because they are pronounced, but we can't discount that this is just how the game goes sometimes. Ronald Acuna Jr., who won the MVP last year in the National League, has only two homers and eight RBI for the Braves, and he has the benefit of lineup protection that Rodriguez doesn't have.

Corbin Carroll, who won the National League Rookie of the Year last season, is hitting just .203 with a homer and seven RBI for the Diamondbacks. He was dropped as low as eighth in the order recently.

2) Rodriguez simply doesn't get on base enough. It's one thing to not have a great batting average, but Rodriguez right now isn't even a consistent threat to get on base. His walk rate is in the 11th percentile according to Baseball Savant. His strikeout percentile is near 30 percent, which is in the bottom 15 percent. The combination of high strikeout and low-walk just isn't a winning formula.

3) Rodriguez is also chasing pitches, as his chase rate sits in the bottom 12 percent of baseball right now. Perhaps he's pressing, perhaps he's trying to carry a bad offense, perhaps he's trying to justify his contract, all of it could be true, but he's certainly not always swinging at the right pitches. He also isn't barreling the ball enough, hitting just 6.4 percent of barrels compared to an 11.8 career average.

So what's the reason for optimism? Well, Rodriguez has been good before so he should be good again. Furthermore, he still hits the ball hard, with an average exit velocity in the 86th percentile. Perhaps those balls will start falling with more regularity, but he still needs a better overall approach.

The Mariners will play the Twins on Tuesday at 7:40 p.m. ET.

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