UFC 311 Main Card Predictions: Can “Money” Moicano Shock Makhachev?

The UFC kicked off its 2025 schedule last weekend in Las Vegas, and with UFC 311 set to go down in Los Angeles this Saturday the MMA Knockout staff are ready to go head-to-head on main card predictions.
We’ll be keeping track of this year’s stats as well as overall records dating back to UFC 309, which currently sees Zain Bando (@zainbando99) leading with 8 points, Drew Beaupré (@mmameditations) in second with 6 points, and Chris De Santiago (@Chris_DSantiago) in third with 4 points.
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Let’s take a look at predictions for the UFC 311 main card.
Holland vs. De Ridder Predictions
Drew: De Ridder’s promotional debut against Gerald Meerschaert wasn’t exactly the most inspiring performance from the former ONE double-champ, but he's facing quite a different stylistic matchup at UFC 311. Holland is always capable of pulling off an unexpected finish, but he’s also jumped between middleweight and welterweight and is facing a dangerous grappler with extensive experience competing at light heavyweight. (Pick: de Ridder)
Zain: Kevin Holland has yet to face a grappler on the level of RDR, and that's a scary thought. If Holland can avoid getting taken down, he has a shot. If not, it'll prove to UFC brass that de Ridder was a worthy signing on the fast track to a title shot. (Pick: de Ridder by Submission, R2)
Chris: (Pick: de Ridder)
Picks: 3-0 de Ridder
Almeida vs. Spivac Predictions
Drew: This matchup probably deserved a spot on the main card even before the Moicano shakeup, as both men would move closer towards heavyweight title contention with a win. Quick submissions over another pair of talented heavyweight grapplers in Alexandr Romanov and Marcin Tybura should give each of them some significant confidence heading into another fight that may largely take place on the ground, and if that does end up being the case I have to side with Almeida. (Pick: Almeida)
Zain: (Pick: Almeida by TKO, R2)
Chris: (Pick: Almeida)
Picks: 3-0 Almeida
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Procházka vs. Hill Predictions
Drew: Procházka is in a tough spot given that he’s already lost to UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira twice, but it’s easy to forget that those are his only two losses since joining the promotion in 2020. Hill’s only setbacks are obviously his own loss to Pereira and an injury TKO against Paul Craig in 2021, but it just feels like Procházka has more ways to get the job done when the cage door closes in Los Angeles. (Pick: Procházka)
Zain: This is a terrific fight on paper. Two former light heavyweight champions with much to prove, and each has losses to the current champion, Alex Pereira. That is noteworthy, especially considering Pereira's likelihood of fighting Magomed Ankalaev next. The winner is likely next in line, and, in my opinion, Procházka seems to have more momentum. In contrast, Hill has never been finished, besides the brutalization Pereira gave him last April. Procházka finds a home for a right hand, followed by a flying knee, and gives himself a shot at earning "KO of the Year" honors and another shot to regain his title after all. (Pick: Procházka by KO/TKO, R2)
Chris: (Pick: Procházka)
Picks: 3-0 Procházka
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Predictions
Drew: I’ve talked myself into similar traps before when picking fights, but I just have such a hard time accepting that a defending champion on a lengthy win streak is currently lined as a more than 2-1 underdog. Betting value obviously doesn’t always translate to accurate fight predictions, but even if it’s an unpopular pick I’m willing to go with Dvalishvili here. (Pick: Dvalishvili)
Zain: Regardless of the opposition, it's foolish to think anyone with the Nurmagomedov last name doesn't have a chance to win. Umar Nurmagomedov is no exception. He has remained humble and focused on the task, while Dvalishvili is too focused on worrying about Georgian roots and other mindless things not relating to the fight itself. That's a bad look, and Dvalishvili has been susceptible to countershots in the past, despite not having tasted defeat in 11 fights. That'll end Saturday night. (Pick: Nurmagomedov by TKO, R4)
Chris: (Pick: Nurmagomedov)
Picks: 2-1 Nurmagomedov
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Makhachev vs. Moicano Predictions
Drew: Moicano did say that he was going to fight for the lightweight title in 2025, although he probably didn't expect that the opportunity would come about in this fashion. I'd have a hard time siding with the Brazilian even if he'd spent a whole training camp preparing for Makhachev, and on short notice I unfortunately don't expect that this fight will play out well for him. (Pick: Makhachev)
Zain: (Pick: Makhachev)
Chris: (Pick: Makhachev)
Picks: 3-0 Makhachev
MMAKO Staff Current Scores (Since UFC 309)
• Drew – 6
• Zain – 8
• Chris - 4
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