UFC 323 staff predictions: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 main card picks & tips

The wait for UFC 323 is nearly over, and the MMA Knockout staff have made their picks for all five fights on the event’s main card.

Merab Dvalishvili will try to make UFC championship history when he steps into the Octagon for what would be his fourth title defense this year against former titleholder Petr Yan, and UFC gold is also on the line in a co-main event that will see flyweight titleholder Alexandre Pantoja attempt to defend his belt for the fifth time against Joshua Van.

The main card is rounded out by Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira, Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott, and Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 Predictions

Merab Dvalishvili (red gloves) reacts after defeating Sean O’Malley (not pictured) in a bantamweight title fight. — Merab Dvalishvili (red gloves) reacts after defeating Sean O’Malley (not pictured) in a bantamweight title fight during UFC 316 at Prudential Center. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Drew Beaupré: Currently on a 14-fight win streak, Dvalishvili is on the precipice of what would arguably be the most impressive year in UFC championship history. He’s looked nearly unstoppable since claiming the bantamweight title and may well put on another dominant showing her after beating Yan in 2023, but it feels like the Georgian might just be tempting fate with the torrid schedule that he’s maintained this year. (Pick: Yan)

Zain Bando: Merab Dvalishvili has a chance to chase UFC history if he can beat Petr Yan to become the first-ever champion to ever defend his title four times in a given calendar year. So far, he has been flawless in doing so, as he beat Umar Nurmagomedov in January, Sean O'Malley in their rematch in June, and Cory Sandhagen in October. Despite being a former champion, Petr Yan can't say the same thing. At 32-years-old with a few good years still left, Dvalishvili has already surpassed Yan in the pecking order when discussing some of the greatest bantamweights ever. With another win, Dvalishvili could potentially cement himself as a standalone pick, although that is up for debate. Come Saturday night, barring anything unforeseen, Dvalishvili should be able to take care of business and defend his title once again. (Pick: Dvalishvili)

Verdict: 1-1 Split

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Predictions

Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) reacts after defeating Kai Asakura (blues gloves) at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Drew: Van’s march to title contention has been a thrill to watch, especially given that he had to rebound from a nasty knockout-loss to Charles Johnson that came in just his third UFC fight. This championship bout could get very interesting if Van is able to stifle Pantoja’s takedowns and really get his striking going, but “The Cannibal” only needs one chance to jump on his opponent’s back and end the fight. (Pick: Pantoja)

Zain: If people don't like this fight, something is seriously wrong. Since Alexandre Pantoja became champion a few years ago, he has simply held down the fort in the most effortless way possible. Although Van, 24, has quickly risen up the ranks, it's hard to pick someone who is still has not had the same level of experience as his champion counterpart. It should be an awesome fight, but it's hard to justify picking the upset when his sample size is still much smaller than Pantoja's. An argument can be made that in the wrestling department, the fight isn't even close, hence the decision pick. Nonetheless, though, it should be a great fight. (Pick: Pantoja)

Verdict: Unanimous for Pantoja

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira Predictions

Brandon Moreno (red gloves) reacts after the fight against Alexandre Pantoja (blue gloves) during UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Drew: As good as Taira has looked since joining the UFC, I’m still quite surprised to see him lined as a slight favorite here against Moreno. “The Assassin Baby” is within range of another crack at the belt after winning back-to-back fights, and as with the co-main event I have to pick the more-experienced veteran to at least temporarily stifle Taira’s title aspirations. (Pick: Moreno)

Zain: This matchup is another good fight with potential title implications attached. Former Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno has been on a nice little run as of late, while Tatsuro Taira recently bounced back in a big way from his first MMA loss. Something has to give here, but Moreno's championship experience seems like it will be a little bit too much for Taira to overcome, as his cardio is some of the best in the entire sport. (Pick: Moreno)

Verdict: Unanimous for Moreno

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Predictions

Henry Cejudo (red gloves) is introduced prior to fighting Song Yadong (blue gloves) in the bantamweight bout. — Henry Cejudo (red gloves) is introduced prior to fighting Song Yadong (blue gloves) in the bantamweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Climate Pledge Arena. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Drew: After confirming ahead of the event that this will in fact be his last fight, Cejudo did not look good on the scale the day before UFC 323. He has a massive experience edge over Talbott and still doesn’t seem to get the respect he deserves as arguably the greatest combat sports athlete of all time, but all signs seem to point towards this being a tough sendoff for “Triple C”. (Pick: Talbott)

Zain: This fight is a classic case of the UFC feeding a young, nearly-unbeaten prospect to a former champion. That's exactly what Payton Talbott is trying to do come Saturday night: change his life forever. Cejudo is far and away the biggest name Talbott has ever faced, and by the time he retires himself, Cejudo may be one of the biggest names he will have fought in his entire career. All of those reasons alone are why Talbott can't overlook Cejudo. They could also serve as a benefit to him, because Cejudo is a shell of who he once was. It will showcase itself Saturday night. (Pick: Talbott)

Verdict: Unanimous for Talbott

Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov Predictions

Jan Blachowicz (red gloves) and Alex Pereira (blue gloves) react after their fight during UFC 291 at Delta Center. | Jeff Swinger-Imagn Images

Drew: Besting a former UFC light heavyweight titleholder would be easily the biggest moment of Guskov’s career, and it would also put him squarely in the mix for a title shot at 205 lbs. There has to be a major drop off coming at some point for the 42-year-old Błachowicz, but Guskov’s vaunted finishing skills are coming up against a fighter with very few stoppage-losses on his record. (Pick: Błachowicz)

Zain: Jan Błachowicz has an opportunity to leave no doubt that he deserves to remain in the mix at light heavyweight should he beat Bogdan Guskov. Given that Błachowicz’s potent striking ability is as good as ever, Guskov will have to do his best to not get inside on Błachowicz and instead use his wrestling to either tire him out or find split second openings to catch Błachowicz clean coming in for a counter shot. If not, Błachowicz can go in for the finish or take a conservative approach. With that said, it seems Błachowicz may take calculated risks that may not fully pay off, hence a potential decision win. (Pick: Błachowicz)

Verdict: Unanimous for Błachowicz

Be sure to check back on our homepage for predictions for the UFC 323 preliminary card, as well as live coverage of the event on fight night.

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