NL Central battle offers big benefits
It is that time of year in baseball before pitchers and catchers (ah, music to the ears) in a couple of weeks: Arbitration, contract renewals and news about pending free agency battles.
None will be bigger than that of Sir Albert Pujols, Mr. No. 1 in fantasy. He is ready to hunker down in his final year before free agency next winter.
Distraction? Bah, humbug. That's good -- no, great -- news.
You have to love your fantasy stud playing for a big-time contract. It is almost like you don't want your contract-year player to sign in the spring, since it could strip them of that added motivation and perhaps lead them to complacency.
We are going to analyze all those players facing free agency in our fantasy baseball preview, but there is an interesting dynamic in the NL Central this spring we figured we should point out here: It could be decided by which pending free agents have the biggest seasons.
The Cardinals have Pujols as they chase the defending champion Reds in the division, but the Brewers have a strong pair in their own right in Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks. This division could be real interesting at the top.
A capsule look at the Cardinals:
1 Ryan Theriot SS
R Jon Jay OF
1 Adam Wainwright RH
CL Ryan Franklin RH
Pujols is getting a second protector in the order with the addition of free agent Lance Berkman, who was a case study of how contract years might not be all they are cracked up to be. Berkman had his worst (not best) season of his career before hitting free agency. He should be better this season, though, and a nice sleeper at first base and the added outfield eligibility.
Rasmus is a secondary beneficiary of Pujols' free agency. He has the coziest lineup spot in baseball, getting protected by the world's best hitter. That should mean plenty of fastballs and Rasmus can murder fastballs. If Pujols has one of his better seasons, Rasmus could be a candidate to go .280-30-90-120-15. That would make him a steal if he slips past the top 25 fantasy outfielders like he should.
The Cardinals have the best rotation in the division. The question marks come in the back-end of the rotation and the bullpen.
If you're giddy about contract years, then you have to love what the Brewers have going for them. Not only do they have a stud first baseman, Fielder, ready to slug for a huge payday, they also have 2010's breakout, 27-year-old Weeks, motivated to put back-to-back years together.
If you add in the massive upgrades in the rotation, the Brewers can definitely compete with the Cardinals, if not the defending champion Reds. Zack Greinke will have a contender to pitch with for the first time and Gallardo is ready to take that next big step into fantasy super-acedom.
A capsule look at the Brewers:
1 Rickie Weeks 2B
R Mat Gamel CI
1 Zack Greinke RH
CL John Axford RH
Braun, this writer's choice for the No. 1 fantasy outfielder and a top five overall, is in a good spot between the contract year of Weeks (along with the breakthrough of Hart last season) and the getting the protection of Fielder's contract year. It should mean a rebound to his .300-35-110-110-15 level.
The Brewers' problem last year was pitching, but they look plenty stacked there with Greinke and Gallardo ready for career years on the best supporting cast they have had yet. Marcum was strong in the AL East with the Brewers and should be very good in the division that features the lowly Astros and Pirates.
The bullpen is a bit of a question mark behind 2010 surprise Axford, but Saito is better than he is given credit for and Braddock is a flame-throwing future closer in his own right.
If we are saying the Brewers are going to be this year's surprise winner of the NL Central, what are the Reds going to be? They are still going to be very good, if not better, if the young arms in their rotation continue their maturation.
In the Great American Bandbox, the Reds will certainly be about offense, but if they are going to hold off the Cardinals and Brewers, they are going to have to pitch even better than they did a year ago.
A capsule look at the Reds:
1 Drew Stubbs CF
R Chris Heisey OF
1 Bronson Arroyo RH
CL Francisco Cordero RH
You can be sure what you're going to get out of Arroyo as an innings-eater, but the Dominican Dandys, Cueto and Volquez, are now in the time of their careers where they could take significant steps to acedom. Leake, Bailey and Wood will have a good battle for the last two spots, with Chapman slated to spend the year in short relief before starting down the road.
Votto had a huge 27-year-old breakthrough a year ago, but the Reds offense needs to get even better. It will if Stubbs and Bruce continue to rise and Phillips and Rolen post their average seasons.