Dynasty Stock Watch Grades Weeks 14-18: Still Selling Kyler Murray
No one asked for it, yet here it is: the final installment of grades for my Dynasty Stock Watch series. Use the following links to find my grades for Weeks 1-4, 5-8 and 9-13.
This week's batch of grades is a bit limited since there were no dynasty recommendations in Weeks 17 and 18 due to the back-to-back holiday weekends for Christmas and New Year’s.
So with the NFL offseason looming, let's talk a bit about the so-called dynasty offseason. So-called because there is of course no offseason in dynasty fantasy football.
I believe the key to any good dynasty league is a consistent blend of managers. Oftentimes, we are in leagues with such a wide range of interest from our leaguemates. If you're diehard, you should be playing with other diehards. If you're not going to check on your team or league until the NFL draft (which begins April 27), there's nothing wrong with that. But you should be in a league where most everyone is the same way. There's nothing more frustrating than a league in which you care and it seems no one else does. Whether it's receiving no response, no feedback and no counter to a trade or there's no discussion of rule tweaks to make the league work better for all involved. You should find a league that fits your needs. There's no wrong way to play, but your leagues should match your interest.
If you're looking for some good resources to find leagues, I recommend subscribing to r/DynastyFF, checking out Dynasty League Football's community forum or their discord and of course, there are a plethora of dynasty-minded Twitter accounts from the many sites out there that are heavily invested in all things dynasty.
Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18
Week 14: Lamar Jackson (buy/hold), Jalen Hurts (buy/hold), Brock Purdy (hold/sell)
Why didn't anybody tell me Jackson would effectively hold out for the last month of the season? He was injured, but the end of the 2022 season didn't go as planned because of it. While I'm still bullish on him wherever he lands, Jackson's value certainly has taken a plunge. That still makes him a buy/hold since you can get him at a discount. But Jackson managers are at the mercy of the fantasy football gods because he could be added to the Texans. Most trade value sites have Jackson just ahead of Trevor Lawrence and a tier below Justin Herbert. That's fair but still a great deal and even with just about nothing going right in the Ravens' offense, there was no slowing down Lamar. He is too dynamic to write off. Grade: B
When I wrote about Hurts, he wasn't... hurt yet. So we're a bit removed from his best 2022 days. Furthermore, a bad game this weekend against the Giants could muddy the waters of Hurts's ascension this year, but I remain bullish. We're on the cusp of another tier jump and there are not many quarterbacks left to surpass. Hurts does not command the same trade value as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. That's a mistake. Maybe the masses need to see Hurts do it all over again in 2023, but I'll take that bet. Grade: A
I once again wrote about Brock Purdy as he was at the beginning of his coming-out party. I did recommend a sell even after calling for a buy just weeks prior. Well, well, well. How the turntables... Purdy is the hottest commodity on the block and it'll be an interesting offseason in San Francisco between Purdy, Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. Grade: F
Week 15: Brock Purdy (hold/sell), Dameon Pierce (buy/hold)
Again? Again. This broken record continues to come back to how the 49ers will play their hand. Will a Super Bowl title push out Lance or Garoppolo? Jimmy G, perhaps but I'm not convinced the 49ers will walk away from Lance unless another team overpays for him. But why would they considering how little he's played. Ideal dynasty situation remains a team that has Lance and Purdy so if I have one, I want the other. Slight bump in my grade because I was a tiny bit more optimistic for a Purdy takeover. Grade: D-
I'm not sure why, but the dynasty community remains very low on Dameon Pierce. He turns 23 soon, but he's the RB18 and RB17 on Fantasy Calc and Keep Trade Cut, respectively. While Pierce doesn't have top-five upside in the foreseeable future, he's hands-down the only good thing going in Houston's offense. In just 13 games played, he had 220 carries and 30 receptions. I'm not sure what more you could want out of a rookie running back. Since he missed the last few weeks, his value is flat and I don't imagine it'll move much without a big splash head coaching hire. Grade: A
Week 16: Geno Smith (hold), Kyler Murray (sell)
Smith is in that grey area of dynasty quarterbacks where we know he did well, but we're a little skeptical he can do it again. We respect his QB5 finish; however, is anybody going to pay full price for that result? Probably not. I don't mind holding Smith and I also don't mind selling high on him, either. He is better suited to chase after in superflex leagues. So unless someone is willing to part with a future mid-first or better, I'm happy to run Smith back in 2023. Grade: B
With Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim gone, there is something to be optimistic about as this team and Murray move in another direction. But DeAndre Hopkins isn't likely to return. Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore need to stay healthy. James Conner, meh. I don't like Murray's vibe and I don't believe he's putting in the time to play the quarterback position in a more under control and consistent manner. For example, Justin Fields moved up for me this year because he played within the playbook after the first read after starting his career looking like a chicken with his head cut off. Murray still feels like and looks like he just does whatever he wants to scramble out and make it up as he goes along past his first read. I can't start players I don't trust. So if I had Murray, I'm still selling because I know the right manager will pay a haul for him. He can prove me wrong on someone else's squad. Grade: B
