NFL Week 12 Expert Picks, Best Bets Against the Spread

Author:
Publish date:

Which NFL underdogs are most enticing in Week 12? Just two games have a spread of over a touchdown, so expect plenty of close games. Below are our experts picking the games against the spread this season, along with each of their picks against the spread and best bets for this weekend's slate.

Gary Gramling, Senior Editor
Max Meyer, Producer, SI Gambling
Jimmy Traina, SI Media Columnist

Season Standings
Gramling 73-70-4
Meyer: 69-74-4
Traina: 68-75-4

Screen Shot 2019-11-21 at 11.08.35 AM

BEST BETS

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Are we sure, one week after getting trounced in Indy, the Jaguars are going to want to tackle a well-rested Derrick Henry? The Jags got the better of Henry and the Marcus Mariota-led Titans on a Thursday night back in Week 3, but Tennessee had beaten the Jags four straight times before that. Factor in Ryan Tannehill being able to make one or two more plays per game than Mariota used to, and Tennessee has a good chance to win this comfortably at home, where it is 3-0 (2-0-1 against the spread) since turning to Tannehill. —Gary Gramling

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

There's really not a lot to analyze here. The Rams offense doesn't have nearly enough firepower to keep up with the points that Lamar Jackson will put on the board. Don't get fooled by L.A.'s recent improvement on defense. Its last three games were against Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph and Andy Dalton. —Jimmy Traina

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (+3)

The Raiders have been one of the NFL's biggest surprises this season, and are a win over the lowly Jets away from setting up a clash next weekend against the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West. Simple right?

Maybe not.

I don't think the Raiders are as good as their 6-4 record, as they have a -25 point differential on the season. That's tied for the worst mark in the AFC West with the 3-7 Broncos, as even the 4-7 Chargers are at +6 in point differential on the season. All six of the Raiders' wins have come by one score, and their current three-game winning streak consists of beating the 3-6-1 Lions, 4-7 Chargers and 0-10 Bengals by a combined 16 points. 

Oakland's start has been keyed by its rookie class, headlined by tailback Josh Jacobs. Jacobs, however, faces a tough task against one of the best run defenses in the league in the Jets. While Derek Carr has put together a very nice season thus far, the offense as a whole may sputter a bit of Jacobs isn't finding any running room.

The Raiders' defense is still vulnerable, and it now has to face a much more confident Sam Darnold. Those October ghosts have disappeared, and in November, he's been turning defenses into turkeys. Now, he's faced the Giants and Redskins the past two weeks, but  Oakland's secondary can be thrown upon, especially in the slot (hello, Jamison Crowder). 

Add in the early start for a West Coast team, and I'll fade an overvalued Raiders team here. —Max Meyer

Season record: 19-12-2