Thanksgiving NFL Betting, Fantasy Preview

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The sharps have gotten the best of the sportsbooks the last few weeks and will be looking to feast this Thanksgiving with three NFL games to go with turkey and stuffing.

Moneyline: CHI: (-155) | DET: (+135)

Spread: CHI: -2.5 (-120) | DET: +2.5 (Even)

Total: 39 – Over: (-110) | Under: 39 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: CHI: 72% | DET: 28%

The line on the opening game, which opened as a PK has seen both sharp and public steam pushing the line to -2.5 in favor of the Bears. According to the “Whispers” out in Vegas, the sharps are laying the points and backing the road team that owns one of the league’s best defenses led by Khalil Mack.

The Bears, who have won three straight against the Lions, have also cashed for bettors going 3-0 ATS in that span. Chicago (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) will be hoping to win for the third time in its last four games. Detroit (3-7-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) will be looking to stop its four-game losing streak.

On the offensive side for Chicago, fantasy owners will want to get RB Tarik Cohen as well as WR Allen Robinson into their starting lineups. Cohen has quietly produced five double-digit PPR fantasy performances in his last seven games and has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games. Robinson comes into Thanksgiving Day off his best game of the season, where he posted 25.1 PPR fantasy points against the Giants. Fantasy owners will also want to employ the Bears defense facing Lions quarterback Jeff Driskel, who was just sacked six times and turned the ball over four times last week against the Redskins. I would not bet against Khalil Mack getting a turkey leg on Thursday.

On the Detroit side, I would avoid the Lions’ committee approach with running backs and only trust wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Golladay caught four passes for 57 yards and a score against Chicago back in Week 9 while Jones made five catches for 77 yards.

The sharps just don’t trust the shaky Driskel and are betting that the Bears defense will be the difference in this one.

The Play: Chicago -2.5

Trends:

  • Chicago is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. NFC North division rivals
  • Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall
  • Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games
  • Detroit is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall
  • The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings between these foes
  • Chicago is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Detroit
  • The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
  • The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings between these bitter rivals

Moneyline: BUF: (+250) | DAL: (-300)

Spread: BUF: +7 (Even) | DAL: -7 (-120)

Total: 45 – Over: (-110) | Under: 45 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BUF: 51% | DAL: 49%

The line on the second game has held steady at the prime number of a full touchdown since its opening on Sunday. According to the “Whispers” out in Vegas, the sharps are grabbing the points and backing the road team that surprisingly has won five of its last seven games.

The Bills, who have won three of their last four games SU, have not failed to cash for bettors, going 3-0-1 ATS in that span. Buffalo (8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) has been one of the best teams against the spread this season. Dallas (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) will be looking to bounce back from its 13-9 road loss to New England.

From the Dallas side, all fantasy owners will be starting QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott and WRs Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb. The Cowboys struggled in the rain and wind against the Patriots last week, only managing three field goals. Amari Cooper crushed owners the hardest with zero fantasy points after drawing tight coverage from top CB Stephon Gilmore. The friendly confines of Jerry’s World should help the Cowboys get back on track, even though it won’t be easy against the third-ranked Buffalo defense.

From the Buffalo side, fantasy owners will be playing QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary and WRs Cole Beasley and John Brown. Allen has failed to top 266 yards passing in any game this season, but has been great with his legs, adding seven rushing touchdowns on the ground. Expect WR Cole Beasley, who has seven double-digit PPR efforts this season, to be extra motivated to play his former team on one of the NFL’s biggest days. Brown has been sensational in his last two games with 11 receptions for 176 yards and three touchdowns.

The sharps believe the seven points offers too much value to pass up and are betting the Bills will keep this one closer than the experts expect.

The Play: Bills +7

Trends:

  • Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 road games
  • Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall
  • Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall
  • Dallas is 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings who last played in 2015
  • Buffalo is 3-1-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings

Moneyline: NO: (-300) | ATL: (+250)

Spread: NO: -7 (Even) | ATL: +7 (-120)

Total: 49 – Over: (-110) | Under: 49 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NO: 78% | ATL: 22%

The line on the night game, which opened with the Saints laying -5.5 points, has seen both sharp and public steam pushing the line to -7 in favor of New Orleans. According to the “Whispers” out in Vegas, the sharps are laying the points and backing the powerful 9-2 Saints.

The Saints, who have won eight of their last nine games SU, have gone 7-2 ATS in that span. New Orleans (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) is one of the best teams in the NFL and appears to clicking on all cylinders, led by the league’s best WR Michael Thomas. Atlanta (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) will be looking to bounce back from its 35-22 home loss to Tampa Bay.

On the Saints side, fantasy owners will be starting QB Drew Brees, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Michael Thomas and TE Jared Cook. My model has Thomas, who leads the NFL in receptions (104), as the top overall WR in Week 13. Expect the Saints to try and get Alvin Kamara going, as the star running back has not found the end zone since back in Week 3. As always, Kamara does his damage out in the passing game, where he has 6-plus receptions in five straight games.

On the Atlanta side of the ball, fantasy owners may need to temper expectations. QB Matt Ryan disappointed immensely in Week 12 in a plus-matchup against Tampa Bay throwing for a paltry 159 yards and an interception. It’s hard to be optimistic that the veteran signal-caller will get back on track on versus a Saints defense that is only allowing 232.7 passing yards per game to opposing signal callers. Fantasy owners will also be playing WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

The sharps expect the Saints to continue to roll and are laying the -7 points in the nightcap on Thanksgiving Day.

The Play: Saints -7

Trends:

  • New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games overall
  • New Orleans is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games
  • New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 vs. NFC foes
  • Atlanta is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall
  • The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these NFC South rivals
  • The underdog is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 meetings between these division foes
  • The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta

Season Record: 2-4