Tuesday night presents us with a seven-game NBA slate to work with. There are a pair of marquee matchups in each conference. In the East, Toronto is a 4.5-point home favorite vs. Miami. Out West, the Lakers and Nuggets meet in Denver. The Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites in that game, and all the tickets are backing the Lakers, but the line keeps pushing up toward Denver. This has all the makings of a trap game. I would normally hop all over Denver but the Lakers are very good and could easily pull off the win. If you are playing money line parlays this evening, I would lay off the Lakers.
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland: Cavaliers +3.5
A pair of Eastern Conference bottom feeders meet tonight in the Land. We all knew that the Cavaliers would have a rough season but the Pistons have been a disappointment. Detroit has not been able to put together back-to-back wins all season, yet tonight they are laying points on the road. When it comes to betting the NBA I have a few golden rules: Fade trendy underdogs and never lay short road favorites. The Pistons are in both of those spots tonight. Detriot is 1-7 away from Little Ceasars Arena this season, and they are 1-8-1 against the spread, yet tonight 80% of the tickets on this game are backing the Pistons. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have not been that bad at home this season. They are 3-7 straight up on their home court and 4-5-1 against the spread. The Cavs have won once in their last nine games, so I understand why people don't want to bet on them, but underdogs win in the NBA every night. The Cavs don't have to win tonight but they will cover the spread.
Orlando Magic vs Washington: Under 227.5
The Washington Wizards are 1.5-point home favorites tonight vs. the Orlando Magic. It’s pretty tough to make a bet on a side in this game but I do see a play on the total of 227.5. This line opened up at 227 and ticked up by a half-point. The Wizards and Magic have both played to the over, for the most part, this season. The difference is they are going over a completely different set of numbers. Orlando's poor start on offense has shaded their numbers to be lower while the Wizards play in games with the total in the 230s on a regular basis. Tonight’s number of 227 is just too high. Orlando struggles to get to 100 most nights. The Magic did put up 125 points against the Wizards two weeks ago, but that game was in Orlando and the Magic were not as beat up as they are currently. Orlando has scored over 100 once in the last four games and that was against the Cavs. The public will continue to drive this number up so wait for the closing line value to bet the under.
Season Record: 29-30